Tue, Oct 10, 2006 - Page 9 News List

So where did all that market volatility go?

Financial tradders who gain from more dramatic displays of market fluctuation may have to wait a while, but days of stable trading cannot go on indefinitely

By Kenneth Rogoff

Television and newspapers continue to trumpet every twist and turn of global financial markets. In truth, however, the big story is the uneerie calm that has engulfed virtually every major asset class, from stocks to bonds. Is the whole investment world on Prozac?

Conspiracy theories abound, particularly among the ranks of financial traders, for whom volatility is like wind to a sailor. These traders confidently figure that as long as markets gyrate, no matter what the direction, they can always make money. And, thanks to the rest of us who don't have the time, information and skill to match wits with them, they are mostly right. But with today's dormant markets, the pickings are slim.

The favored bogeymen of the day are giant government investors, particularly Asian central banks, with their trillions of dollars in assets. These superfunds, whose managers do not necessarily share the same passion for profit as private investors, are said to be squeezing the life out of interest rates and exchange rates.

"The big Asian central banks are oppressing us," one young trader recently complained to me.

What a difference a decade makes. During the 1990s, private investors looked at big, lumbering central banks as cash cows: long on money and short on financial acumen. George Soros once made a billion dollars off the Bank of England in just an hour. His basic strategy was a standard one: Bet against any central bank that tries to defend an inconsistent macroeconomic policy.

Traders did not win every battle, of course. It was the speculators whose blood flowed in the streets when they attacked Hong Kong's dollar peg in 1998. But overall, betting against big government financial institutions proved to be a richly rewarding business.

That was the 1990s. Today, many traders see formerly inept state giants as financial geniuses, capable of taming complex financial formulas and exploiting their superior size and trading information to squeeze the life out of currency and interest rate markets.

These behemoths' innate conservatism, having calmed bond and currency markets, is now having a similar effect on stocks. Although few accuse Asian central banks of explicitly conspiring to calm global markets, some say that their common cautious approach to trading is a form of implicit collusion.

As much as we may sympathize with young would-be millionaire traders, does their story of oppression make any sense? Could it be true that huge government investors from Asia -- not to mention Russia, Latin America and the Middle East -- have quietly taken control of world markets? Perhaps, but the bogeyman theory seems a bit overblown.

Yes, the big Asian central banks do sit on almost US$3 trillion in assets; China's central bank alone has around US$1 trillion. This gives them a capital base similar to the combined assets of all the world's major hedge funds.

But this metric is very deceptive. Hedge funds constitute only a small percentage of overall world financial markets, which, according to a recent study by the McKinnsey Global Institute, now exceed US$120 trillion.

And hedge funds, unlike banks, can leverage their bets, borrowing to take on assets many times the size of their capital base. Otherwise, George Soros and his wealthy fellow investors could not have dreamed of taking on the Bank of England.

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