Chinese President Hu Jintao (
The soft "united front" strategy of China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) aims to co-opt Taiwanese businesspeople, media outlets and politicians into allowing Chinese tourists to enter Taiwan. The tougher approach of China's foreign ministry, meanwhile, aims to cut Taiwan off from most -- if not all -- participation in the international community.
China is mixing up both approaches so that threats, coercion, promises of benefits and enticements will eventually compel Taiwan to accept the "one China" principle. A lack of overall coordination, however, means that frequent and sudden policy changes undermine this goal.
There are reports that China -- hot on the heels of securing diplomatic recognition from Chad on the eve of Premier Su Tseng-chang's (
The campaign to unseat Chen is focused on the alleged corruption of members of the first family, who have been subject to unending media "revelations." One of the effects and possible intentions of Chen's visit to Palau will be to distract the media. And if China really does win over Palau on the eve of Chen's visit, it will be playing into Chen's hands. It would allow him to redirect the focus of the media from the domestic situation to foreign affairs, while China's suppression might serve to consolidate pan-green-camp support.
The China factor may also dampen support for the anti-Chen campaign and strengthen anti-China sentiment, a situation that Chen would welcome after so many months of political and personal difficulties.
When members of Taiwan's delegation to the International Children's Games in Bangkok over the weekend received their medals wrapped in the Republic of China flag, members of the Beijing team snatched the flags away. This embarrassed even the pro-China Taipei City Government into expressing strong displeasure at the Chinese team's actions.
Pointless provocations by Beijing, such as the stupid behavior of its goons in Bangkok, has kept alive a feeling of resentment in the pro-independence camp, parts of the pro-unification camp and among the general public. This resentment is replacing the sense of detente created by, say, allowing 400 managers from Microsoft's China operations to hold a meeting in Taiwan, or the discussions about opening Taiwan up to Chinese tourism.
China is also scuppering any chance that TAO Director Chen Yunlin (
Chinese foreign affairs officials may think spending huge amounts of money to buy over Taiwan's allies may be a good policy, but cutthroat diplomatic competition is certain to erase the TAO's achievements. The lack of coordination between the agencies responsible for carrying out Taiwan policy has resulted in a situation where each acts as it sees fit, sometimes even working directly against each other.
If this continues for much longer, Chen will find a way out of his predicament thanks to his enemies -- something he has grown used to over the decades.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with