Sat, Aug 26, 2006 - Page 9 News List

Is the Chinese economy headed for a meltdown?

Many analysts believe that growth in China is out of control and that the authorities in Beijing must act soon before it takes a mighty fall

By Jonathan Watts and Larry Elliott  /  THE GUARDIAN , BEIJING AND LONDON

These municipalities are the wildest speculators in China's economy. Free from electoral pressures, provincial leaders are judged on the size and growth of their economies. Many also have the incentive of kickbacks to push development projects, whatever the impact on the environment and local people's rights, and often regardless of central government instructions.

With Beijing's grip on its provinces so shaky, the talk is once again of whether China can slow gently to a more sustainable level or whether it will crash.

Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, estimates June's 19.5 percent surge in industrial output was the strongest since China launched its reforms.

"The unbalanced growth model has now gone to excess," wrote Stephen Roach, economist and China expert at the bank. "The coming downshift in Chinese economic growth could well be a good deal bumpier than widely thought. The longer it waits, the bigger the bumps."

Stephen Green, of Standard Chartered Bank, believes the absence of inflation suggests China has room to grow even faster.

"I think the restructuring we've seen -- more private sector, more foreign investment, more openness -- plus efforts to sort out energy bottlenecks mean the economy can grow pretty fast without inflation. Why not 12 percent or higher?" he said.

Chinese policymakers argue that the problems of growth are best solved by more growth. So far, this has worked, but there are long-term limits to the approach.

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