If Taiwan had a population of 230 million instead of just 23 million; if Taiwan had 3.6 million square kilometers of land instead of just 36,000km2, then I would be the first to advocate "courageously going west, and actively opening up," as the saying goes.
Unfortunately, in reality Taiwan's population is a mere 1/56 of China's, its land a mere 1/267 of China's. And Taiwan needs to address that reality in practical terms.
Coincidentally, the differences between Taiwan and its outlying Penghu islands in terms of land and population parallel those between China and Taiwan. Penghu's land area, for example, is 1/283 of the main island of Taiwan; in the early 1930s, Penghu's population was roughly 1/46 of Taiwan's. Because of the distance separating Taiwan from Penghu, ferry rides between the two lasted up to eight hours. Thus, improving Taiwan-Penghu transportation links, and developing Penghu, have always been popular issues in local elections with relevance to Taiwan's far-flung smaller islands.
In 1979, Penghu finally got its own airport -- Makung Airport -- cutting travel time to and from Taipei from eight hours to half an hour. Everybody expected Penghu to experience rapid development, with fishery cargo centers, meeting halls and tourist facilities popping up. However, things didn't work out like that.
The air links only strengthened Taiwan's "magnetic" pull on Penghu's resources, shrinking the outlying islands' population from 120,000 two decades ago to 90,000 today. Taiwan's population, meanwhile, has swelled by 10 million people over the same period. Furthermore, the wealth gap between Taiwan and Penghu has widened, leading to Penghu's marginalization.
Besides its small size compared with Taiwan, the flow of people, money and goods is an important factor in Penghu's marginalization; language and culture are also factors. For example, if the distance between a small economic entity and a big one is not great, and the entities share a common language, then human and financial resources from the smaller economy are bound to gravitate toward the bigger one.
This phenomenon will only intensify with improvements in transportation between the two economies, exacerbating the marginalization of the smaller economy. Of course, given that the main island of Taiwan and the Penghu islands are all part of one country, this is not a pressing problem. And although Penghu has been marginalized to a degree, it still can contribute much to the country at large, especially in terms of human resources.
What happened between Taiwan and Penghu could also happen between China and Taiwan. When the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) swept to power in 2000, they began to implement a policy of "opening up" to China in terms of trade and other economic exchanges. The 2001 Economic Advisory Conference promoted the notion of "active opening up," a six-year trend that has already led to a profound deepening of trade relations with China.
For instance, more than 90 percent of Taiwan's overseas investment has gone to China, compared with just 33 percent six years ago. Taiwan's dependence on China as an export market reached 40 percent in the first half of this year, compared with 25 percent six years ago.
Last year, 4.11 million Taiwanese tourists visited China. However, Taiwan's economic growth was practically cut in half last year, discrediting the popular notion that its economy would soar as it further merged with China. Wages, meanwhile, have grown less than 1 percent and the stock market has plummeted from its high of 10,000 points, bouncing back up only to the 6,000 point to 7,000 point range. The signs of Taiwan's gradual marginalization are already apparent.
Penghu's marginalization is not a matter of life and death. Taiwan, however, is a sovereign nation, and being marginalized by China is a threat to its very existence. It is a tragedy that the DPP is unaware of this fact. Last month it began preparatory meetings for the second Conference on Sustaining Taiwan's Economic Development, drawing together members of the Taiwanese business community and pro-unification think tank analysts under the banner of the "Global Bridge."
Conference participants called for total liberalization vis-a-vis China, including establishing direct cross-strait transport links for people and cargo, and scrapping banking and investment restrictions such as the 40 percent investment cap imposed on locally listed companies seeking to invest in China. Conference organizers are bent on making Taiwan a springboard for businesses seeking to enter the China market.
The DPP's policy with regard to cross-strait economic relations from here on out will be to advance its "active opening" agenda, fostering an openness between Taiwan and China that is on par with the way Taiwan interacts with Penghu. Penghu, don't forget, has been marginalized by such openness. Will Taiwan really avoid marginalization by China by opening up completely to it, as envisaged by the DPP?
Time will tell, and fairly soon, too. Experience, however, has already taught us that such liberalization brings more disadvantages than advantages.
Last Monday, at a Taipei meeting ahead of next week's economic conference, one Taiwanese business delegate openly referred to Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) as "Comrade Hu" (胡同志). Is this an omen of Taiwan's future? Ultimately, it will be the DPP -- not pro-unification elements -- that snuffs out Taiwan.
Huang Tien-lin is a former national policy adviser to the president.
Translated by Max Hirsch
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