New Zealand's conservation minister, Chris Carter, last month toured the Pacific, visiting the Solomons, Kiribati and Nauru requesting them to change their mind, but was rebuffed.
"It looks increasingly likely that the pro-whaling nations will achieve a majority on the commission for the first time," Carter said.
Changes
"At the moment we will take anyone," said a British diplomat close to the talks. "We have been singularly unsuccessful in the Caribbean. The Gambia might think twice if it was pointed out that their tourists might not like the fact that they are going to vote with whalers, but it's not looking good."
Anti-whaling countries now expect Japan to select the body's next chairman and vice-chairman and to make key procedural changes such as the introduction of secret ballots.
An immediate return to commercial whaling, which would require 75 percent of the votes, is unlikely for five years, said a British government official.
"The first steps of the pro-whaling groups will be to disband the IWC's conservation committee. It will then overturn the commission's formal condemnation of Japan's scientific whaling program, which exploits the loophole in the moratorium to hunt for whales," one observer said.
The Japanese foreign ministry official said he was unaware of any proposal by Tokyo to abolish the conservation committee.
Even though commercial whaling could be technically possible within a few years, there is now little demand for the meat. Japan's meat from expeditions ends up in restaurants and supermarkets, and there are plans to start selling it cheaply to schools and hospitals.
Norway traditionally has not been able to sell all the whale meat it gets from its hunt and sends some to Japan.
Junichi Sato, campaign director of Greenpeace Japan, conceded that a pro-whaling coup at the IWC would be "a disaster." He said the introduction of secret ballots would enable smaller countries, particularly Caribbean islands, to vote with Japan on every issue without fear of alienating the US, another major aid donor.
"It would certainly lead to more votes for Japan," he said.
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