Over the last few days the streets of Montenegro have been alive with celebrations. After sharing its fortunes with Serbia first as a monarchy, then a communist state and finally a union -- none of which was successful -- on Sunday it moved into the final part of its journey, with its establishment as an independent country.
This comes at the end of a drawn out struggle that has caused blood and tears in profusion. Naturally, Serbia retains some resentment at having lost what it once had, and even Montenegro is divided between the two extremes of those wanting independence and those wanting to maintain the union with Serbia.
Independence advocates wanted sovereignty and international standing, whereas those in favor of maintaining the union with Serbia prevaricated between concern for the country's economic future and having political power. The prevailing concern is what the future will hold for a tiny country with a population of just over 600,000.
With its vote for independence, Montenegro becomes, after East Timor in 2002, this century's second new country. Of course, that it was able to achieve independence at all owes a lot to the international community's stance, and particularly due to support from the West.
One cannot deny, either, that much is owed to the skillful negotiating teams at Montenegro's disposal who paved the way for independence by lobbying the international community.
There are clear similarities between Montenegro's situation and that of Taiwan. The proportion of people wanting independence from China tends to teeter around the 50 percent mark, and until we have a referendum on the issue it is impossible to be sure whether independence or unification would prevail.
In Montenegro's case, independence was eventually achieved without bloodshed, a fact which was certainly related to the positive intervention of the EU. The EU, after a long period of observation and surveys, agreed that a result of more than 55 percent of the vote in a referendum on the issue with a greater than 50 percent turnout could secure independence. The EU, as a group of neighboring states, has given its blessing to the decision of the people of this region and supports the result of the democratically conducted vote.
In the end, the independence vote obtained a result of 55.5 percent, exceeding the EU threshold. The US ambassadors in Serbia and Montenegro called on the political leaders of both sides to respect the results and to negotiate the necessary arrangements. The EU agreed with reports by international observers that the vote had been both fair and transparent, and called on all political parties within Montenegro to honor the people's wishes and cooperate in making the necessary preparations for entry into the EU. The number of EU countries has steadily grown from 33 at the end of the Cold War to 46 today.
The major EU nations still tend to favor unification -- in fact both the UK and Germany are examples of this process. Nevertheless, Europe has gone through countless changes in the last half century or so, with smaller states popping up everywhere. The media have even said that Europe is on its way to becoming a continent packed with small countries. And even if there are opposing views, as there always are, everyone is willing to keep an open mind about the future, just as no one would deny historic changes achieved through democratic processes.
Hu Hui-ning is the European correspondent for the Liberty Times.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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