Zoellick also pointed out that when certain Taiwanese politicians decide to renege on their promises by withdrawing from their original stance, or when they push the political envelope, the US government will respond with some kind of bilateral initiative, although without compromising its basic respect for Taiwan.
Zoellick's statement is strong for diplomatic language. The underlying meaning is that once Chen breaks a promise, the US will use its own way of putting heavy pressure on him and will not allow him to cross the US' line of tolerance.
Further, while Zoellick emphasized that Washington will suppress any moves toward Taiwan independence, Young also made plain his view that Washington is in favor of cross-strait direct links.
In his speech, Young said that the US is happy to see cross-strait economic and trade links being discussed through democratic means and transformed into policy. This is one of the least ambiguous statements to date of the US' stance on the issue of direct links.
Many people believe that the current stalemate between Taiwan and China on direct cross-strait links is in the US' best interest. This belief is in fact a myth. During her trip to Beijing in July 2004, then US national security advisor Condoleezza Rice reaffirmed the US' adherence to the "one-China" policy and urged the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to engage in genuine government-to-government dialogue.
Since former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) visits to China last year, the Bush administration has said that it welcomes dialogue, but that the Chinese leadership should also engage in direct dialogue with Taiwan's elected leaders.
Because the US has never made a clear public statement showing that it supports talks on direct cross-strait links, President Chen has procrastinated on this issue.
In his New Year's message, Chen even attempted to offer a policy of "active management and effective opening" and temporarily put the issue of direct links aside.
But given the contrast between the US welcome accorded KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) in March and its refusal to grant President Chen a transit stop in New York, Chen has been forced to give Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) the task of formulating a new policy on cross-strait transportation links.
Zoellick's talk of independence meaning war is a warning to Taiwan not to take any rash action. Young's talk of the benefits of direct cross-strait links indicates that the legislative push to establish these links has US support. The government needs to listen to both messages.
Edward Chen is a professor in the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University.
Translated by Eddy Chang and Lin Ya-ti
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