During the welcoming ceremony for Chinese President Hu Jintao (
During the meeting that followed, the US president stopped short of promising to come out against Taiwanese independence, as Beijing had hoped, merely stating that he did not support it. US government officials have also said that they do not consider the mothballing of the National Unification Council (NUC), as changing the status quo.
In his meeting with Bush, Hu promised to shift the emphasis from exports to increasing domestic demand to drive China's economic development, in an effort to reduce the gaping trade deficit between the two countries. Bush then broached Beijing's dubious dealings in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Internet restrictions and the extradition of North Koreans who had crossed the border into China.
As far as Taiwan is concerned, it is worth noting that after the meeting, Dennis Wilder, acting director for Asian Affairs at the US National Security Council, confirmed the US position that the mothballing of the NUC did not constitute a change in the status quo.
On Jan. 30 this year, the deputy spokesman for the US Department of State, Adam Ereli, let it slip that applying to enter the UN under the name of Taiwan would, however, be considered a unilateral change. On Feb. 27, President Chen Shui-bian (
The actual way in which the US defines the status quo seems to be considerably flexible, and Taiwan also has the right to offer its own dynamic interpretations. This contrasts with how many pessimistic observers see the situation, and is diametrically opposed to the view that the US and China are collaborating against Taiwan. The Bush administration doesn't want to see either side changing the situation, and hopes that the Taiwan issue can be resolved through peaceful means.
As evidence of the fact that the US believes that the status quo is unchanged, Bush avoided a repeat of the situation in which he openly criticized Taipei to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (
A number of US officials consider US collaboration with China against either Taiwan or the Chen administration to be a mistake, as this would impose restrictions on US policy regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait. This aside, for the US to gang up with China, a non-democratic nation, against democratic Taiwan would be morally untenable. After China passed its "Anti-Secession" Law, Bush reminded Hu during a phone call that Beijing should enter into direct talks with Taiwan's democratically elected government.
In addition, Bush opposed the dropping of the EU ban on weapons sales to China. Given their differences on these issues, how can the US and China collaborate to bring about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?
Hu reiterated over the course of his meeting with Bush that Beijing does not rule out using military force against Taiwan. This shows that the military threat against Taiwan will not necessarily disappear simply because of trade or peace forums held between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Cross-strait relations need to be more harmonious, but Taiwan still has to maintain a basic defense capability if it doesn't want to see its options fade away.
The US and China are seeking a constructive and cooperative relationship while actively modernizing their armies, thus clearly working for peace, but still preparing for the eventuality of war. If Taiwan is to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, it needs to come up with a similar strategy.
Lin Cheng-yi is director of the Institute of European and American Studies at the Academia Sinica.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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