Second, North Korea is hemmed in, while the Iranian nuclear standoff has fixed US attentions elsewhere. Just as the US worried about the Soviets invading Europe during the Korean War, it worries today about a high-stakes clash in the Persian Gulf region. For now, events have relegated a nuclear settlement in Northeast Asia to secondary importance.
Third, Pyongyang is in a stronger position than it was during the Korean War talks. Kim Jong-il's regime has proved surprisingly resilient. Unlike the shattered North Korean army of 1952-1953, Kim's military (probably) boasts a small nuclear deterrent, allowing Pyongyang to take a course independent of Beijing. Hopes that China will use its influence to force a deal thus could go unfulfilled.
Prognosis? More haggling until something happens to shift the balance of alternatives in Washington's or Pyongyang's favor.
James Holmes is a senior researcher at the University of Georgia Center for International Trade and Security.
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