However, I have my doubts as to whether or not this means that Chinese tourists will be able to travel to Taiwan immediately.
First, it remains to be seen if cross-strait tourism negotiations will be based on the so-called "1992 consensus." Will Beijing find it acceptable if Taipei continues to deny the existence of this consensus?
Second, will China be willing to see Chen Shui-bian's government make a comeback on the economic front during the final two years of his presidency, or will they mix talks and procrastination to let the pan-blue camp reap the benefits? After all, it took three years for Beijing and Tokyo to ink a deal on tourism-related issues.
Third, it remains to be seen whether or not China will allow Taiwan to set up an "overseas agency" issuing visas in China. This involves the sovereignty issue, and it is not very efficient to have applications reviewed in Hong Kong or Macau. It would also be difficult to verify credentials and qualifications -- both the EU and Japan now interview applicants before issuing a visa to prevent illegal stays.
Fourth, if cross-strait direct flights are not established forcing visitors to travel via Hong Kong or Macao, the price of traveling to Taiwan is not going to be competitive, which would mitigate the effects of deregulation.
Kinmen can be included as an entry and exit point. It could serve as a buffer, and such an arrangement could offer a boost to tourism in Kinmen while also reducing the negative impact of the high speed rail on domestic civil aviation once it starts its services.
Judging from the opening of the three small direct links in 2000 and the opening up of category 2 and category 3 Chinese tourism in 2002, the impact of a unilateral opening of Taiwan to Chinese tourism without any prior negotiations would probably be quite insignificant.
Fan Shih-ping is an assistant professor in the Department of International Affairs at National Kinmen Institute of Technology.
Translated by Daniel Cheng
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