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Apply the `nuclear option' to Taiwan

When US President George W. Bush met Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) at the White House yesterday, members of the "Taiwan Haters Club," disappointed at the US not lambasting Taiwan for scrapping the National Unification Council and its guidelines last month, were no doubt trying to push for the "nuclear option" -- to have the US president once again scold President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in the presence of a visiting Chinese leader, as he did during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's (溫家寶) visit on Dec. 9, 2003.

At that time, when asked about a referendum that was planned to coincide with Taiwan's presidential election on March 20, 2004, Bush recounted what he told Wen on the issue: "We oppose any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo. And the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose." If that was not damaging enough, then listen to what Wen had to say: "We appreciate the position of the US government."

A senior Bush administration official tried to play down the incident afterwards by claiming that Bush had also told his visitor that the US "would have to get involved if China tried to use coercion or force to unilaterally change the status quo."

Nevertheless, Beijing emerged as the winner as it had succeeded in pushing Washington to rein in Taipei.

China used to insist that the Taiwan issue was an internal affair and the outside world, especially the US, should mind its own business. Now China relies on the US stick to deal with Taiwan.

The US should make substantial efforts to oppose Taiwanese independence and not send any wrong signal to "Taiwan's secessionists," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao (劉建超) said in response to the decision on the NUC.

"I hope the United States can make joint efforts with us in safeguarding China-US relations and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," he added.

According to the New York Times, China views the NUC episode as a test of how well the US could constrain Chen. And China believes that Chen has prevailed over Washington's objections.

The clearest signal that China may be seeking stronger action from the US came from Li Zhaoxing (李肇星), China's foreign minister. Speaking at a news conference last month, Li warned the US against sending "false signals" to Taiwan by playing down the scrapping of the NUC, which he called "a dangerous step toward independence" that required a tough response not only from China but also from other governments.

Indeed, as Hu's visit approached, there were lots of signals indicating that China expected Bush to offer public comments and private reassurances to discourage Chen from pushing any further.

For example, two senior US experts in the Chinese government, in separate interviews last week, indicated how obsessive China is regarding Taiwan. Both Yang Jiechi (楊潔箎), vice foreign minister and former ambassador to Washington, and Zhou Wenzhong (周文重), the current ambassador, said that Taiwan remains the most important and sensitive issue in US-China relations.

Yang called on the US "to work together with China to oppose and counter secessionist activities on the part of Taiwan," while Zhou said the Taiwan issue is "crucial to maintaining steady development of bilateral relations."

In fact, Bush himself is aware of the Chinese obsession. Speaking at Johns Hopkins' school of advanced international studies last week, he said that Taiwan has always been a "predominant issue," on China's agenda.

And Adam Ereli, the State Department's deputy spokesman, has already told reporters that the US would make its position on Taiwan clear when the two leaders meet.

It will be interesting to see what Bush will say at the summit. Taiwan seems to be bracing itself for the worst. David Lee (李大維), Taiwan's de facto ambassador to Washington, told reporters last week that unpleasant "surprises" couldn't be ruled out.

Taiwanese-American organizations plan to protest in Lafayette Park while Hu is inside the White House next door. Organizers expect several thousand people to join the protests.

When the US President receives the Chinese dictator at the White House, Bush should indeed repeat something he has said before. Last November, during a visit to Japan, Bush praised Taiwan's journey from repression to democracy.

Bush probably uttered the highest compliment to Taiwan ever by any US president in living memory: "Taiwan is free and democratic and prosperous. By embracing freedom at all levels, Taiwan has delivered prosperity to its people and crated a free and democratic Chinese society."

Bush should repeat his Kyoto speech to Hu and not repeat the mistake he made two years ago.

Liu Kin-ming is a Washington-based columnist.
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