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Never the twain shall meet in Hu,Bush talks

The meeting between US President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is being taken very seriously on both sides of the Pacific. However, China specialists in the US doubt that Hu will compromise much on any of the major bilateral issues. The Bush-Hu meeting is therefore likely to have more symbolic than substantive significance.

Hu has two main goals for his visit to the US. The first is to be treated as the leader of a major nation, to enhance his status in China. Secondly, he wants the US to rein in independence advocates in Taiwan and criticize President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) government.

The US, however, sees things differently. Bush said in a speech a few days ago that he would be broaching three major issues with Hu: fair trade, human rights and religious freedom.

Bush said he is aware of the importance Beijing places on the Taiwan issue, but reiterated that the US' position has not changed: the US does not wish to see either side making any changes to the "status quo" across the Taiwan Strait. The last time Hu met Bush in New York, the US president didn't even mention Taiwan. Beijing is likely to be disappointed again.

Of the three issues the US wishes to bring up, the most important is probably that of trade. The Democrats are getting antsy that the Sino-US trade deficit hit a historic high of US$200 billion last year. This is an especially touchy topic this year with the up-and-coming midterm elections. Bush is looking to maintain the Republican majority in the Senate and House of Representatives and cannot afford to make any concessions to Beijing on the trade front.

In a speech given at Johns Hopkins University last week, Bush openly challenged Hu, saying that the Chinese president would be visiting a nation with which his country is running an annual trade deficit of more than US$200 billion. Many Americans were wondering what had happened to the idea of fair trade, Bush said.

For his part, Hu does not dare offer compromises on trade either, as Beijing is concerned that allowing the yuan to fluctuate against the greenback would have serious consequences for the economy -- not good for a dictatorial government that puts stability first. Beijing, then, is making smaller concessions in an attempt to quell US anger -- such as a recent trade mission to the US which purchased US$16 billion in goods, promised to combat piracy, lifted the ban on US beef imports and opened up the telecommunications and medical equipment markets.

The fundamental reasons why this meeting will yield little of substance are the completely different social and political systems of the two countries and the differing values of their leaders. According to China specialists speaking at a conference sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, the US government is losing faith in Hu, whom they originally saw as a reformer but have come to think of as one of the old guard.

The US public, too, have a negative opinion of communist China. A recent public survey by the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, reveals that 64 percent of Americans see China as an economic threat to the US, 50 percent believe China poses a military threat to the US, and 55 percent think China employs unfair competition in the global market.

There are three major reasons why Americans see Beijing in a bad light: its dictatorial political system, its military intimidation of Taiwan and its unfair trade policy with the US. Until these basic factors are dealt with, Sino-US relations will remain full of uncertainty.

Cao Changqing is a freelance journalist.

TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
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