US unlikely to change its stance for China

Chinese Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) will soon visit the US. Among comments made by various academics, the most unusual one must be that from Chiu Hungdah (丘宏達), a law professor at the University of Maryland, who said the US will change its stance from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence."

Chiu that Hu is holding all the cards in the meeting between him and US President George W. Bush, and that the only foreseeable breakthrough in the meeting may concern Taiwan.

No how one looks at Sino-US relations, it is difficult to arrive at Chiu's conclusion. In the view of the US, economic issues should be the center of attention. Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi (吳儀) has already paid "protection money" by signing contracts worth US$4.4 billion with US firms. As US pressure on China to let the yuan appreciate against the US dollar increases, the yuan exchange rate keeps reaching new record highs, causing speculators to flock to Hong Kong's and China's stock markets.

The second point were the US is applying pressure is human rights. When Hu met Bush at the 60th anniversary celebration of the UN in New York last September, he did not release any jailed Chinese political dissidents as a goodwill gesture. This time around, however, he has released a few dissidents, or delayed their trials, to pander to the US.

Economic are relevant to the US' practical interests, while safeguarding human rights is part of the US' founding spirit and long-term interests. As China moves to please the US, it is only natural that it asks for something in return.

The most controversial matter preceding this visit is protocol. Bush hopes to receive Hu at his ranch in Texas as a sign of closeness and friendship, while Hu insists on the status of official state visit on at least the same scale accorded former to Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民).

Hu's has to do with "face" and China's internal power struggles. Initially, the US and China had different views on the matter, but now the US says nothing. This silence could mean that Wu's dollar diplomacy is having the desired effect, or it could mean the US is making concessions on this so it will not have to offer a breakthrough on the Taiwan issue.

The US has never been interested in discussing the Taiwan issue with China. But it accorded Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) high-profile treatment during his recent US visit. The US also gave Hu a lot of face during the flurry surrounding the cessation of the National Unification Council and the application of its guidelines.

Although the US needs to cooperate with China in fighting terrorism and other issues, it is gradually understanding China's trick of nominal cooperation. Therefore, it expects little from China. Some US government officials have long blurred the distinction between the concepts of "not supporting Taiwan independence" and "opposing Taiwan independence," but that doesn't reflect a significant policy shift.

After all, China has always translated "not supporting Taiwan independence" as "opposing Taiwan independence" to deceive its own people. As a result, they wouldn't experience a breakthrough even if the US were to say that it opposed Taiwan's independence.

In the 1980s, Parris Chang (張旭成), then a visiting academic in the US and now deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, made some cogent comments on China's reform and opening together with Chiu. Today, the two hold separate views about China. One cannot help but wonder whether Chiu's unusual view is the result of letting his emotions take priority over his rational faculties.

Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.

TRANSLATED BY LIN YA-TI