The media's attention during the early part of this year has been focused on the cessation of the National Unification Council and its guidelines, and then the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman's visit to the US. The mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung at the end of the year will be about whether the KMT can continue winning elections, or possibly a return to the previous speculation over who will be the candidates for the next presidential election in 2008.
It shouldn't be. The changes in the legislative structure, and which party will rule it, may become more important for Taiwan's future.
The problems that developed regarding the council and guidelines may well be the beginning of a change in policy for the US and Taiwan, but more likely -- for the time being -- will change to the way the two sides conduct dialogue. The changes not only in this relationship, but in power and the growth of democracies worldwide -- even though they do not always agree on issues -- are already here. In the US-Taiwan relationship, trying to maintain a low profile will be difficult for Washington, Beijing and Taipei.
These difficulties inevitably are part of domestic problems as well as the changing atmosphere in East Asia. Under these circumstances China continues to refuse any dialogue with the government of Taiwan (which is far more legitimate than its counterpart in Beijing). It is not prudent for the US to continue to pursue its policy of talking openly with China, but maintaining restrictions on its discussions with Taiwan.
The media's attention therefore swung to KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's (
Ma expressed his and presumably the KMT's positions on a considerable number of cross-strait issues; at the same time, his visit generated a significant amount of opposition statements in the media back home. As with the unification council problem, these have to be considered by policy-makers in Washington.
The KMT's platform as stated by Ma would include the "five noes" pledge made by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in his inauguration speeches, as well as what he called the "five does."
These were to resume talks with China under the so-called "1992 consensus"; negotiate for an up to 50-year peace accord; accelerate exchanges with China on direct links, tourism, financial services and an economic common market; negotiate a modus vivendi with China on Taiwan's international activity; and increase cross-strait cultural activity.
The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) platform, meanwhile, is still in flux as the party prefers public debates rather than closed-door decision-making. At this point, its focus is on challenging the KMT's platform. Surprisingly, there has been little mention that almost all of the proposed issues have been tried either in the last KMT administration or in Chen's term.
Predictably the DPP opposed several points, including the resurrection of the "1992 consensus," that "one China" is the Republic of China, the potential for the KMT's involvement in China and the absence of any statement of concern over the missiles China has pointed at Taiwan. But its efforts at party reform might soon become of even greater interest.
The media for the time being will continue to focus on the DPP's continuing efforts to shape Taiwan's character as a separate entity, and the KMT's efforts to change that direction toward being a part of China, in some way. That will continue as long as there are differences in the cross-strait relationship. But what is looming on the horizon far more closely, and just as important for Taiwan, is the changes in its structure and the coming legislative elections next year.
Bringing about the changes already written into the Constitution on legislative reform will be just the beginning. Of the 113 seats in the new legislature, 73 will be filled by elected candidates, six must be filled by Aborigines and 34 will be at-large or overseas representatives selected by the parties. Conventional wisdom has it that the changes will favor the large parties (DPP and KMT), which will mean a very close race.
As in grassroots campaigns, national issues are not at the top of the list of voter concerns. This was seen in both the last legislative elections and the more recent grassroots elections. While this is likely to remain the same in some sense, the lower number of candidates will make the campaign for 73 seats much more intense.
But a more immediate task should be establishing some rules before the election. The past six years certainly have demonstrated a fundamental problem in keeping the government operating.
It may not be unique to all democracies, but in older democracies, tradition experience and rules have found ways to overcome or at least make possible some headway on issues in a split government. Taiwan is not one of them yet.
Especially important for Taiwan are security matters and measures to enable governance to continue. After legitimate debates are exhausted, legislative leaders should be expected to seek reasonable concessions acceptable to both sides that keep them from causing a national disaster. This ought to be the most important problem addressed before the new legislature convenes.
One should think about the possible results after the next legislative elections and the presidential election one year later: There could be another split government, which would continue the gridlock, or one party could win both the elections, which in today's Taiwan could challenge the peaceful changes to democracy that have prevailed.
Taiwan is in a quasi war with a huge enemy. Of its two major political parties, one wishes for a closer relationship with China, while the other wants a clear separation from it. A majority of voters meanwhile are floating in an atmosphere of "status quo." If the present picture remains the same -- a split government -- can Taiwan survive? If one side captures both the Legislative Yuan and the presidential elections, can domestic governance prevail without bloodshed? Or without occupation by China?
A reasonable agreement on how to manage government under these circumstances should be made in these next two years. Without it, China may very quickly dominate Taiwanese politics, no matter which party holds which branch of government.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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