Australia's awkward balancing act

`Apart from Taiwan, where conflict could only arise from any Chinese attempts to annex it, there is not much that warrants the continuous increases in China's defense budget.'

US of State Condoleezza Rice's recent visit to Australia was important for two reasons. First, it was a belated, though welcome, recognition of the importance of the Asia-Pacific region in the US' global strategy. Indeed, the inclusion of Indonesia in the trip was long overdue, being not only the biggest Southeast Asian country but also the country with the world's largest Muslim population.

At present, Indonesia is important to the US in its global war on terrorism in this part of the world. But as and when the US shifts its focus away from terrorism, Indonesia will feature increasingly in galvanizing the region into facing the challenges of a rising China.

The preparatory work done now in forging closer relations might come in handy in persuading Jakarta at some later stage to become a US ally.

Second, Rice's visit marked the inaugural ministerial level trilateral security dialogue between the US, Australia and Japan. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso traveled to Australia for the meeting, which will be an annual event.

Indeed, trilateral dialogue has been an annual feature for some years now, but at a lower level. From this year, it has been upgraded to ministerial level, reinforcing the linkage between Japan and Australia's respective security treaties with the US. The backdrop for all this activity is the perceived danger from a rising China, and the need to put in place security measures to meet the challenge.

This could even become the basis for a NATO-type Asian organization, depending on how things shape up. But China has done such a good job of charming many countries in the region that this might not be feasible in the near future.

Beijing been so successful in its efforts to gain approval that even Australia, one of the US' staunchest allies, is anxious that its security dialogue with the US and Japan shouldn't be seen as intended to contain or counter China.

According to Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, "I think a policy of containment of China would be a very big mistake. I think the right policy approach is successful engagement with China."

However, it is felt that there is a need for transparency about China's defense and strategic goals. The double digit increase in Beijing's defense budget over the past few years is a worry at a time when China's strategic environment has never been so benign.

Apart Taiwan, where conflict could only arise from any Chinese attempts to annex it, there is not much that warrants the continuous increases in China's defense budget.

Australia's toward China is dictated largely by its growing export market there. Of late, a good proportion of Australia's GDP growth has been attributable to the demand for its natural resources from China. If the pace of China's economic growth continues, Australia's economy stands to gain much.

But however much Downer might like to talk of engagement and not containment of China, there is a big question mark about the region's future with China flexing its muscles.

It is true that many Australians are not entirely comfortable about their tutelage of the US, and tend to express it on some specific issues in opinion polls. Even on China, some would like to maintain their independence of the US based on enlightened self-interest. As one correspondent wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald, "Why would our Government choose to alienate a large neighbor that has the potential to become our greatest-ever trading partner just to satisfy American attitudes reminiscent of 1950s McCarthyism in the Pentagon?"

According to columnist Paul Sheehan, "What Australia needs is good, trust-based relationships, proven over time, with all four major powers in Asia -- China, Japan, India and the US."

He argues that, "Powerful relationships with China, Japan and India will, by definition, wean Australia off its century-long bad habit of acting as a surrogate for the imperial vanities of London and, for the past 50 years, of Washington."

But Australians, by and large, are comfortable with their US alliance, as expressed overwhelmingly in periodic opinion polls. They might want some political flexibility in dealing with the outside world, as with China in terms of Australia's economic interests, but when it comes to the crunch they like to seek protection under the security umbrella of the US. The trilateral security dialogue is an example of this.

Beijing on the whole, felt comfortable with nuanced changes in Australia's foreign policy. Australia is not talking about containing China. It likes to emphasize the challenges and opportunities of a rising China. It could even become a moderating influence on the US. And it would like to be excused from involvement in any military confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan. Downer said some time ago that the ANZUS treaty with the US might not apply to Taiwan.

Considering Australia was right behind the US during the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, Canberra has moved some distance to accommodate Chinese political sensitivities. But the primacy of the US alliance is not in question.

Even though China is emerging as Australia's major trading partner, Canberra is keen to maintain and reinforce its economic and security relationship with Japan, which is still its top export destination. And like Australia, it is the US' security partner, and part of their annual security dialogue.

Ashton Calvert, a former head of the Department of Foreign Affairs, reportedly said in a recent lecture that in its enthusiasm to welcome China's increased regional role Australia "should not soften our support for a more active and responsible role for Japan in international political and security affairs."

He added, "As part of this, we should maintain our firm support for Japan's bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council."

Canberra doing just that, including encouraging Japan to shed security constraints imposed by Article Nine of its Constitution.

This will not amuse Beijing. But China is aware of Australia's close security relationship with the US and its linkage with Japan. It will hope, though, that its growing economic leverage with Australia might be a moderating factor.

Rice's visit to Australia has reinforced an already close relationship. At the same time, Australia has sought to assure China that it isn't ganging up with the US and Japan to contain its growing role in the region.

Canberra engaged in some tight-rope walking, hoping that the US and China will not come to blows to test its acrobatic skills. If they do, Australia might not have much option but to line up behind the US.

Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.