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Why the 'Bush revolution' is finally at an end

"The interesting question is why the Bush administration has decided to reverse course."

Ivo Daalder, a former senior official in the Clinton administration

The Bush administration reaffirmed its right on Thursday to use pre-emptive military action against potential threats, but signalled a new emphasis on forging alliances to take collective action against terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear arms and to promote democracy.

In a newly adjusted doctrine, laid out in the first National Security Strategy (NSS) document since the Iraq war, the administration reflected a note of caution after three years fighting in Iraq. According to one Democratic foreign policy expert it signified that the "Bush revolution is officially over."

Laying out the strategic underpinning of US foreign policy, the NSS stated: "We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran." It emphasized the primacy of diplomacy in attempting to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. But without directly mentioning military action, it also warned that "this diplomatic effort must succeed if confrontation is to be avoided."

Iran offered to open talks with the US on Iraq on Thursday, and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said: "We are prepared to have a conversation with Iran" to discuss what the US describes as Iranian covert action to destabilize Iraq.

Meanwhile, Washington is seeking a UN Security Council rebuke to Iran, as a possible step towards further international sanctions, but the Bush administration has refused to rule out military action if that is the only way of stopping Tehran becoming a nuclear power.

Presenting the NSS paper on Thursday, Hadley said it "affirms that the doctrine of pre-emption remains sound and must remain an integral part of our national security strategy". That doctrine was laid out in the last NSS in 2002, but many critics have argued it has been called into question by the Iraq invasion, justified by inaccurate intelligence on alleged weapons of mass destruction.

However, the new 49-page doctrinal statement said: "We do not rule out the use of force before attacks occur, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy's attack."

At the same time, the new NSS document puts far more emphasis than its predecessor on diplomacy and concerted international action.

It echoes the principal theme of US President George W. Bush's second inaugural address in January last year: the need to promote democracy around the world as the best long-term means of defeating terrorism and assuring US security.

"With the publication of its new National Security Strategy, the Bush Revolution is officially over," declared Ivo Daalder, a former senior official in the Clinton administration's national security council, in a blog response to the NSS. "In some notable ways, the new strategy document represents a return to the foreign policy of Bill Clinton."

"The interesting question is why the Bush administration has decided to reverse course. Part of the answer, surely, lies in the fact that reality demonstrated the limits of its revolutionary foreign policy," Daalder wrote.

A renewed emphasis on the need for international partnerships was also a feature of the Quadrennial Defense Review, a long-term strategy document published by the Pentagon earlier this year.

Like that defense policy review, the NSS stressed the importance of finding new friends abroad and training them to combat terrorist groups themselves.

It defines the "first pillar" of US foreign policy as "promoting freedom, justice, and human dignity", and the "second pillar" as "confronting the challenges of our time by leading a growing community of democracies".

The US, the document said, would put more energy into mobilizing democracies to put pressure on dictatorships, such as North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Belarus, Myanmar and Zimbabwe.

"Though tyranny has few advocates, it needs more adversaries. In today's world no tyrant's rule can survive without the support or at least the tolerance of other nations," the policy paper said.

In 2002 Bush listed Iran and North Korea as co-equal members of the "axis of evil", alongside Iraq. The new document clearly portrays Iran as the primary threat.

Thursday's overture by Iran, announced by the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, was widely seen as a bid to relieve some of the international pressure on the country over its nuclear program.
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