Last week, US President George W. Bush's national security adviser Stephen Hadley hit the bull's-eye by commenting that "everybody loses" in the event of a clash in the Taiwan Strait. The "everyone" referred to not only Taiwan and China, but also the US and the entire region.
Since any military clash in the Taiwan Strait is very likely to be followed by forced unification with China, there is no question that Taiwan has a lot to lose. Politically speaking, it will be placed under authoritarian rule and lose the precious democracy that it has painstakingly built over the years. The Taiwanese economy will suffer irreparable damage as a result of the military invasion and perhaps collapse entirely.
Everyone in Taiwan knows that China has threatened to use force if Taiwan unilaterally declares independence. Without a doubt, that is a step that the Taiwanese government will not carelessly make, regardless of who holds the presidency. Add in the fact that the majority of the people in Taiwan are not ready at this point to directly provoke Beijing this way.
Instead, the more pressing question for Taiwan at this moment is how far can it go without raising the "independence" red flag for the Chinese government? Can Taiwan participate in international organizations such as the UN and the WHO? Can Taiwan draft a new constitution that meets its current practical needs?
No one really knows. That is why the Taiwanese government has to find out in an incremental fashion and through trial and error -- a process which has sparked tensions and concerns from Beijing and the US. However, one can hardly blame the Taiwanese government; it cannot roll over and die and do nothing to maximize the scope of its freedom.
Beijing also has much to lose in the event of a military clash in the Taiwan Strait. It may finally be able to lay claim to Taiwan, but there will most likely not be much left of Taiwan, especially economically. Beijing would be like a little child who has managed to get his hands on a toy by fighting other kids for it. But the toy would be broken by the time it gets its hands on it. Beijing needs no reminder from the US to realize the consequences of such a clash. The question is: Would this spoiled brat rather break the toy than let someone else have it? The answer is very likely to be an irrational "yes," considering the state of mind of the Chinese leadership.
Of course, even Beijing would prefer to avoid the use of force in order to accomplish its goals. In order to do that, it has to make unification a much more attractive option for the Taiwanese people. If Taiwanese did not have to worry about all those missiles pointing at them, very few people would consider unification a tasteful choice at this point. After all, why would anyone in his or her right mind voluntarily give up all those precious rights protected by democracy -- freedom of speech, freedom of worship and the right to vote, among others -- and succumb to Chinese authoritarian rule?
The truth of the matter is "everybody wins" if Beijing continues to thrive economically and, even more importantly, becomes fully democratized. The people of Taiwan may just choose unification voluntarily then. Beijing would not have to get into a war with Taiwan and risk becoming an enemy of the entire world -- the US in particular. So while Bush's call for the democratization of China in his National Security Strategy report last week is nothing new, it reflects the truth.
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