Editorial: Su Tseng-chang takes a big gamble

What this new penchant of political leaders to make promises so florid that they carry with them a self-destruct mechanism if things go astray?

Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) has promised not only to step down as premier if the crime rate does not fall in six months, but also to leave politics altogether. There's a riskiness in such politicking that will not help Su in his drive for the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential nomination. This strategy has since been sanctioned by the Presidential Office.

If Su is sincere about reducing crime, he has done himself no favors by committing himself to a result that relies on complex statistical analyses -- the trashing of which has become a pan-blue-camp specialty, regardless of the strength of the evidence -- as well as the public's perception via opinion polls that crime is falling. Worse, this perception is more a product of media manipulation and hyperbole than it is of personal experience of crime and social trends.

Tying leadership of a Cabinet and the morale of its ministers to this standard is unnecessary -- and obstructive. Instead of putting pressure on Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to give some sign of what he stands for, the pro-China media will now dog the premier every few weeks between now and his arbitrary deadline with reports of how crime remains just as awful as ever.

Su's in the party must be hoping against hope that Minister of the Interior Lee Yi-yang (李逸洋), who has responsibility for police affairs, has been carefully briefed on what Su is attempting to do. Somehow, it seems unlikely that this is the case.

Last year's local government elections were in part a test of the new party chairmen. Ma cleverly promised to step down if the pan-blue camp did not secure a certain number of city and county electorates. Ma was clever because the number he chose was modest under the circumstances. Su almost immediately followed with the same promise, brandishing a number so unrealistic that he was more or less forced to start considering his next career move there and then.

But at the time, it seemed that Su could step down as chairman of the DPP with honor. He simply did not have the time to fix the mess that he inherited, but his resignation gave the party a brief shot of dignity that someone could accept responsibility and take a fall.

Now Su has repeated this tactic. But this time he doesn't represent a party; he heads the Executive Yuan. It is a radical move at a time that the Cabinet requires strength, solidarity and confidence after years of instability and lack of momentum. For the sake of the government, Su would be better advised to never give up, never give in, never resign until all other options have been exhausted. Now that Su has floated the prospect of resignation after the shortest time possible in the job, DPP supporters who have seen their premiers come and go must be starting to get that sinking feeling again.

Meanwhile, the Mainlander-dominated criminal network Bamboo Union and other pro-KMT thugs must be rubbing their hands with barely suppressed glee. If Su is Ma's only credible challenger for the presidency, then here's an open invitation for them from Su himself to contribute to his possible removal from office by markedly increasing their criminal activity. Pro-DPP criminals, for their part, are hardly likely to wind back their operations and place limits on their livelihoods to indulge a politician's risky strategy.