The US Defense Department recently published its Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), which outlines a new strategy for dealing with the threats facing the US and stresses that conventional warfare has been replaced by the threat of terrorism, the possibility of terrorists obtaining weapons of mass destruction and the rise of strategic rivals.
The review also identified four goals:
First, defeating terrorist networks.
Second, comprehensively defending the homeland.
Third, shaping the choices of countries at strategic crossroads.
Fourth, preventing hostile states and non-state actors from acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction.
It is worth noting that this document categorizes China as an "emerging power," along with Russia and India. But it goes on to say that China is the mostly likely one of the three "to compete militarily with the US" and the nation most likely to deploy military capabilities that could threaten what it terms "traditional US military advantages." Clearly, the US is looking warily at the growing threat posed by China.
Although the US claims that it envisions cooperation with China and expects Beijing to play a constructive role in the international community, this is only one side of a two pronged strategy directed at China. With regard to strategic deployment, the US has focused more attention on Asia than it has on Europe. The US plans to make two significant adjustments to its naval forces. First, it will transfer 60 percent of its submarine fleet to the Pacific. Second, it will ensure that six out of its 11 aircraft carrier groups are always ready for combat in the Pacific.
The QDR also points out that the US will attempt to dissuade any military competitor from developing disruptive capabilities that could enable regional hegemony or hostile action against the US or other friendly countries, and it will seek to deter aggression or coercion. Should deterrence fail, the US would deny a hostile power its strategic and operational objective. The report also points out that the US, its allies and partners must hedge against the possibility that any major or emerging power will choose a hostile path.
Whether or not Taiwan will continue to be protected under the US' security policy over the next two decades will depend on how the relationship between the two is defined. The question is whether Taiwan is regarded as a "friendly nation" or an "ally."
For an answer to this question, we have to review the US' Taiwan policy. In Oct. 1998, former US president Bill Clinton signed the Defense Authorization Act, specifying Taiwan as one of the US' three major allies in the Asia Pacific region and supporting the inclusion of Taiwan in the US theater missile defense program.
In August 2002, US President George W. Bush signed a bill which appropriated additional funds to enhance the US counter-terrorism efforts and regarded Taiwan as a US "ally" so that when the nation is participating in this anti-terrorist campaign, its behavior will not be restricted by the International Criminal Court. There is no doubt that Taiwan is an ally of the US.
From a global perspective, it seems that Taiwan is a part of the US' new grand strategy. While Taiwan is under the US' security umbrella, it has to fulfill its obligations by taking precautions to guard against any hostile and emerging powers.
When considering such a strategic framework, we should realize the importance of the proposed arms procurement to Taiwan. The delay of the arms procurement bill should not be tolerated any longer.
Chen Kuo-hsiung is a research fellow at the Taiwan National Security Institute.
TRANSLATED BY DANIEL CHENG
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