Editorial: Soong could still hold the key

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) enjoyed a landslide victory in last December's local government elections. But its gains at the local level have been offset by losses in the legislature. Now that four KMT legislators have taken up posts as local government heads, the pan-blue camp retains only a slim majority of 111 of the 220 occupied seats. As a result, even a slight miscalculation could lead to a defeat in the legislature.

The new single-member district and two-vote system (單一選區兩票制), which will be introduced in next year's legislative elections, will disadvantage smaller parties. This, together with the fact that KMT rules demand that candidates for public office have at least four months of party membership, have exercised a magnetic effect on People First Party (PFP) lawmakers, nine of whom have joined the KMT since last year's elections.

Theoretically, for the KMT, the more seats the better. But in fact, the defections have antagonized PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), who may break away from his alliance with the KMT, taking the 25 remaining PFP legislators with him. This would leave the KMT without a majority in the legislature, so Ma has hardly dared say a word on this sensitive issue.

Soong is known for his determination, and will not readily concede defeat. When former president and KMT chairman Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) put pressure on Soong, then provincial governor, over the abolition of the provincial government, Soong resisted. In fact, he even managed to run for the presidency in 2000, and subsequently to form the PFP. Now with Ma's star rising, Soong has had to adopt a lower profile. But as long as the foundations of the PFP remain, he may re-emerge. Soong's will is the heart and soul of the PFP, and it is this that has alienated those in the PFP who advocated a merger between the two main pan-blue parties.

With the PFP facing the electoral handicap of the "single-member districts" and an acute shortage of cash, defection to the KMT must look like an appealing and reasonable option for PFP legislators. But though this decision might be logical from a personal perspective, it bodes ill for the pan-blue alliance, and may even lead to its ultimate collapse.

With his allies deserting him on every front, Soong may find himself unable to win office as Taipei mayor. But if he remains true to his determined nature, he might still lead an influential minority. This is the fatal flaw in the pan-blue's fragile majority. In addition, there is the problem of Ma's alleged "lack of respect" for Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平).

It is Soong's destructive potential to the pan-blue dominance of the legislature that has led Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to state that Soong cannot be discounted from the political scene.

When the alliance between the KMT and the PFP held firm, they were able to dominate proceedings against the DPP, the single biggest party in the legislature. There have now been five premiers under the DPP, and important legislation, appointments and budgets have been held up, resulting in an almost complete halt to political development. For the pan-blue alliance, it is illogical for the PFP to go its own way. But for the government and for Taiwan, it could be beneficial.

If, in the new legislative session, it becomes possible to escape from the constant confrontation between the pan-blue and pan-green camps, this will facilitate effective debate and have a beneficial effect on Taiwan's overall development. The issue of illegally obtained party assets can serve as a starting point for cooperation between the DPP and the PFP, and that can only have a positive effect on Taiwan's political environment.