President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) decision to wait almost a month before making a serious response to his party's defeat in the Dec. 3 municipal elections has left analysts confused. Either he has been scratching his head for a good four weeks, wondering quite what gloss he can put on such a clear and massive drubbing, or he is playing a longer, if riskier, game.
Chen is unused to having the full weight of popular support so obviously stacked against him. One can understand him being lost for words, too foolish to think of a quick riposte, speechless in the face of such an unprecedented thumbs down.
The elections were certainly seen as a huge vote of no confidence in a president who has failed to deliver tangible economic reform and whose party's claim to be anti-corruption has been tainted by murky goings-on at the highest levels.
Delaying any response to the defeat, at least until allegations of big business and politicians colluding in the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp scandal disappear, could be an effective strategy to reclaim support for his administration.
That said, it's important to note that the Kaohsiung scandal did not anger the public because of treatment of the Thai laborers. Taiwanese are less concerned about the buying and selling of foreigners than they are about unemployment, and the Kaohsiung controversy is at the very least symptomatic of the wider economic malaise that besets the country.
In addition, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power on an anti-corruption ticket but has not proved to be beyond reproach. Taiwanese are too politically astute -- and proud -- to countenance outright lies. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) may be corrupt, but at least it admits that.
On the other hand, Chen's strategy may have been to stay quiet until the traditional New Year's Day address to demonstrate his plans for the future, and so avoid harping on about the past. Instead, he played what is perhaps his strongest, and certainly oldest, card: national self-determination, sovereignty and independence. Rather than apologizing for or even admitting to mistakes, Chen is perhaps trying to re-invigorate the possibility of constitutional change next year.
Aside from his laughably desperate deployment of the stale concept of "fostering national identity" that the DPP has thus far demonstrated themselves incapable of managing, Chen is perhaps playing the longer game. The longer game is economic and one that is incredibly risky from a strategic point of view, but may yet reap huge rewards for both him and the DPP, as well as for the Taiwanese people. A rising tide floats all boats.
If Chen can deliver short-term economic reform and convince the Taiwanese people that the DPP is the only party that can protect the nation's hard-earned wealth and political freedom from the thieving cadres of the Chinese Communist Party in the medium term, then he is perhaps in a position to enjoin the public to agree to constitutional changes that would strengthen Taiwan's claim to independence.
China would be hard-pressed to respond in any meaningful way to such constitutional change next year, particularly in advance of the Beijing Olympics in 2008. It seems unlikely that China would risk an Olympic boycott and also, perhaps, economic sanctions, at a time when it would be aspiring to be one of the major players in the present geopolitical configuration.
In addition, if we accept the -- frankly unlikely -- scenario that the situation in Iraq will have at least stabilized by that time, then the US may also be more able (though its public may not be more willing, especially given the stalled passage of the arms procurement bill) to engage militarily in any cross-strait conflict. This possibility seems ever more salient if Chen is banking on the worsening of economic rifts between the US and China.
This latter suggestion seems tempting. But what does Chen get out of all this?
Clearly, he is unlikely to push for a rewriting of the Constitution that would allow him to continue for a third term in office. In the first place, the outcry from the opposition would make it not only impossible, but it would also be suicide for the DPP. Besides, it is doubtful that Chen would even want to continue as president after 2008.
Rather, Chen is hoping to inscribe his name in the annals of history, alongside former president Lee Teng-hui (
This is his goal: political immortality for achievements profound enough to outweigh the cock-ups and embarrassments which would consign his legacy to the dustbin.
Chen would rather not be remembered as a butter-fingered president who dropped the ball and went from hero to lame duck. So, he is either a genius or a fool. And his performance this year may tell us which.
Gareth Price
Taipei
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.