President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has managed before to put the cross-strait issue on the agenda in polls. However, the issue did not prove crucial to last Saturday's elections. It would be an oversimplification to say that the elections were but local government elections, and that Chen had already hurt his public standing when he vowed to resist the passage of the pan-blue's cross-strait peace advancement bill.
Local businesspeople and investors follow the view of the international community in seeing the election results as an indication of the future of cross-strait affairs. Although the following incidents may not have come into direct play during the elections, they were still important variables.
First, earlier this year, Chen and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) met to resolve the crisis facing the governing party and discuss cross-strait issues. Chen's agreeing to Soong's visit to China, undoubtedly legitimized later actions by those who bypassed the government to engage with Beijing. As a result, the pan-greens are no longer in a good position to attack the pan-blues over their handling of cross-strait issues.
Second, Beijing's adoption of the "Anti-Secession" Law only confirmed that it has launched a new all-out "united front" strategy to achieve unification by applying pressure in the business sector. However, the government responded to this in the same way it had treated the old "united front" strategy, causing it to lose ground when the pan-blue camp proposed the export of Taiwanese fruit to China and when former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan (連戰) visited.
These incidents weakened the momentum of the pan-green's election campaign. At the same time, the pan-blues were bolstered by expectations that a victory would improve ties with Beijing.
Although Chen said during the campaign that if the pan-blues won the government would further restrict cross-strait relations, it now looks like those who hoped for a deregulation of cross-strait policy will not be disappointed.
The reason for this is not just because of remarks Chen made while stumping for the DPP's candidates, but because the issue of fruit exports to China made the government realize that it can no longer respond to Beijing in the same outdated manner, since the China's leaders are altering their "united front" strategy. Added to this is the weakened position of the pan-green camp, which makes it less able to resist pressure on cross-strait policy.
Nonetheless, Chen's intention to restrict cross-strait relations may still happen as the pan-blue camp may lean too far toward China, thereby seriously disturbing cross-strait relations. Fruit exports are just one example of this.
China's offer of tariff-free imports for some Taiwanese fruit and other measures to speed up customs handling was originally very simple, as Beijing unilaterally announced the decision without any negotiations with Taipei. As for the measures to expedite customs handling, the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA) did not object to Beijing's offer.
However, the pan-blue camp resolutely opposed the intervention of TAITRA because it believed that the agency implies Taiwan has nation status. Therefore, it maintained that the Taiwan Provincial Farmers Association was the correct body to negotiate the matter with Beijing. As such, the matter has become stalled -- a result of political squabbles between the pan-blue and pan-green camps.
In addition, China's Taiwan policy may also involve its own calculations. For example, China is lagging far behind Taiwan in terms of the cargo volume for chartered cargo flights, so it simply allowed the issue to drag on.
Without the aforementioned factors, there would be a greater likelihood of making progress in cross-strait trade. If Taiwan does decide to relax cross-strait policy, it will be based on the fact that the world believes China's economic boom will continue long term, and because of its rapid rise on the political and economic fronts.
In East Asia, China seems to be competing with the US for regional power status. Some in Taiwan also believe that world affairs are now dominated by the US and China only. But once Taiwan deregulates its China policy, it will realize that the political climate in East Asia has changed.
China's foreign and domestic markets have become severely constrained, with China's largest export industry, the IT industry, enjoying only marginal profits two years ago. In addition, prices for raw materials have surged.
Global investment in China is expected to slow because of recent overinvestment there. As a result, China's economic growth is expected to slow dramatically, with Japan's and Indonesia's picking up. This will cause a realignment in economic ties between nations, and the resulting friction will further strain the Sino-Japanese and Sino-Indonesian relationships.
If the situation is prolonged, what will emerge in East Asia is not a political confrontation between China and the US but a world led by a single super power, the US, and other rising regional powers such as China, Japan and Russia, and even South Korea.
In this situation, a new political alignment will come into play. Once the situation intensifies, it will be more rational for Beijing to adopt a stable Taiwan policy.
All in all, the cross-strait situation remains tense and the timetable for a resolution will be delayed. Pragmatic exchanges will develop, and will be determined by the overall political and economic situation. And so, although these trends influenced the elections, the elections did not have much of an effect on the trends. But with the governing and opposition parties still wrapped up in the election atmosphere, neither seem to be aware of this.
Lin Cho-shui is a Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
Translated by Daniel Cheng
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