When the US signs such an unprincipled agreement and then boasts over how it has achieved a "real breakthrough," it only serves to tell Asian countries that the US does not intend to solve any issues in the Asia-Pacific region. It also tells Iran that as long as one really does have nuclear arms as well as China's support, it is no problem to join the nuclear arms club.
This outcome has dealt a debilitating blow to the US' credibility as a proponent of the non-proliferation of nuclear arms. This leads to concerns that the nuclear arms race will intensify in the future.
China, who has shown no intention of dealing with the issue, was the big winner in this last round of talks. Beijing was originally under the most pressure at the start of the talks, but by redirecting the focus to the signing of the statement of principles, it regained the initiative and also achieved its goal of perpetuating discussion of the issue without actually solving it -- since that would mean that China will not be challenged by the US to come clean in the UN.
It also means that China, as the host of the talks, continues to control the northeast-Asian security agenda. This allows it to use North Korea to restrict Japan and block an alliance between Japan and the US. The outcome of the talks shows that Beijing's strategy has been very successful.
In addition, North Korea has offered only empty promises and refused to even admit to having an uranium-enrichment program. Despite this, it managed quite well to gain from the talks, by obtaining promises of recognition from both the US and Japan, as well as international financial and material assistance.
The US Department of State's mistakes also landed Japan in trouble -- not only do the Japanese suspect that their country was deliberately left out of the statement of principles, but that it also forced the issue of Japan-North Korea diplomatic relations onto the agenda.
For Taiwan, the US' attitude during the talks means that it should take note of how the US deals with Asia-Pacific affairs. The fact that the old guard in the State Department has left and that the new guard still hasn't moved in spells danger. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not participate in the ASEAN summit, leading ASEAN states to question how much importance the US really attaches to the Asia-Pacific region.
Rumors have circulated recently that the strategic dialogue between the US and Japan -- headed by Robert Zoellick, the US deputy secretary of state -- has been downgraded by the US. In addition, the US' apparent abandonment of the Asia-Pacific region in the last six-nation talks leaves the impression that it lacks the ability to implement a comprehensive Asia-Pacific strategy -- a strategy of which the US seems to have no clear grasp in the first place.
If this is the true state of affairs, it will be very interesting to see what the US' response will be once a crisis erupts, despite the fact that Taiwan-US relations seem to be good for the time being -- a time when the situation in the Taiwan Strait is stable.
Lai I-chung is director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan Thinktank.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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