US ambiguity harmful

Therefore, the catalyst for US action would come from the CCP-KMT alliance's relentless push to set the stage for China's takeover of Taiwan. The timing for the US to act would most likely be shortly after the US government concludes that the KMT, even under the new leadership of Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), is not going to cooperate with the US on procuring arms and that it's time to give up on the pan-blue camp.

The US can justify its about-face on the grounds that the CCP-KMT alliance's underhanded efforts amount to evading or obstructing the application of the TRA, and that action is needed also to reverse a trend that could lead to long-term regional instability. In other words, there will be ample national security imperatives to support this undertaking.

Then there is also the issue of fairness, which can add some moral gravity to US action, on account of the CCP and the KMT ganging up to undermine the administration of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).

By now, it should be clear that carrying out a significant shift in the US' "one China" policy is the most effective approach for the US to regain the initiative and stem the ominous tide in the Taiwan Strait.

At minimum, Washington must declare that Taiwan's status is still undetermined and that there is no provision in the TRA to release the US from its obligation to aid in Taiwan's defense against China's aggression even if Taiwan declares independence.

That would naturally signal a change in the status quo and clear up the ambiguity discussed earlier. This in turn would restore the Taiwanese people's confidence in the US, as well as the future of Taiwan -- a situation that would bode well for them being able to vote to reject Taiwan being sold off, and to forcefully demand that the nation's deterrence capabilities be beefed up.

And, should the US change its "one China" stand, the ensuing crisis might also force China to seek a multilateral peace conference with at least the US, Japan and possibly a couple of other regional powers.

Hopefully, that would provide the opportunity and platform to settle the cross-strait issue once and for all -- presumably in a spirit of justice for the Taiwanese people, as well as long-term regional peace and prosperity.

Huang Jei-hsuan

California