Despite the hikes in oil prices have hurt Taiwan's economy, particularly the export sector, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) on Thursday predicted the nation's GDP growth is likely to pick up slightly to 3.65 percent for the year, from the 3.63 percent it forecast in May. The statistics agency based its estimate on expectations of steady domestic consumption and stronger export growth momentum during the second half of the year.
It would be a relief if the impact of skyrocketing oil prices on Taiwan's economy was limited, although the bureau acknowledged that higher prices have caused slower export growth. High oil prices also substantially cut the nation's trade surplus estimate to US$2.208 billion for the year -- the lowest level since 1981, when Taiwan reported a US$1.41 billion trade surplus that year -- from the US$3.5 billion the DGBAS forecasted earlier.
But the statistics bureau's estimate surprised many economists, coming as it did against the background of a spate of downward revisions by other analysts. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (
There's no direct evidence that the DGBAS was trying to fudge its GDP estimate, although the government is undoubtedly under pressure to attain its 4 percent economic growth target for the year. Yet the bureau's assumptions on some of the factors that made up its forecast have raised many economists' eyebrows, and people are worried the bureau may have cast into doubt the reliability of government statistics.
For instance, examine the bureau's oil price forecast. The DGBAS appears overly optimistic in its forecast, saying the average price will be US$55.5 and US$56.4 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters, with an average price of US$51.2 for this year. Although New York oil futures prices have recently pulled back from their high of US$67.10 on Aug. 12, supply concerns persist and prices remain volatile. Last Thursday, these concerns spurred Merrill Lynch & Co to raise its estimate for average oil prices to US$56 per barrel this year.
As for the consumer price index, the DGBAS predicted that the inflation benchmark would climb to 1.97 percent this year, up from the 1.7 percent it predicted in May. Caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't -- mostly because of oil prices -- the government is determined to bring inflation under control by requiring state-owned power companies to absorb the cost of higher oil imports and thus keep retail fuel and power prices comparatively low. However, this measure came at the price of the government's fiscal balances deteriorating, while the private sector felt no urgency to become more energy efficient. Sooner or later, the government had to pass on more of the oil costs to the private sector, and the CPI had to rise accordingly.
That is exactly what came to pass. Taiwan Power Co (
An upward revision of the GDP forecast may be pleasant for the nation to hear, but the government is making a grave mistake if it is manipulating figures to soothe the public's concerns about oil prices and their impact on the economy.
Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) led a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan in late February. During their various meetings with Taiwan’s leaders, this delegation never missed an opportunity to emphasize the strength of their cross-party consensus on issues relating to Taiwan and China. Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi are leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Their instruction upon taking the reins of the committee was to preserve China issues as a last bastion of bipartisanship in an otherwise deeply divided Washington. They have largely upheld their pledge. But in doing so, they have performed the
It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation by unification of Taiwan, either peacefully or by force. The peaceful option has virtually gone out of the window with the last presidential elections in Taiwan. Taiwanese, especially the youth, are resolved not to be part of China. With time, this resolve has grown politically stronger. It leaves China with reunification by force as the default option. Everyone tells me how and when mighty China would invade and overpower tiny Taiwan. However, I have rarely been told that Taiwan could be defended to
It should have been Maestro’s night. It is hard to envision a film more Oscar-friendly than Bradley Cooper’s exploration of the life and loves of famed conductor and composer Leonard Bernstein. It was a prestige biopic, a longtime route to acting trophies and more (see Darkest Hour, Lincoln, and Milk). The film was a music biopic, a subgenre with an even richer history of award-winning films such as Ray, Walk the Line and Bohemian Rhapsody. What is more, it was the passion project of cowriter, producer, director and actor Bradley Cooper. That is the kind of multitasking -for-his-art overachievement that Oscar
Chinese villages are being built in the disputed zone between Bhutan and China. Last month, Chinese settlers, holding photographs of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), moved into their new homes on land that was not Xi’s to give. These residents are part of the Chinese government’s resettlement program, relocating Tibetan families into the territory China claims. China shares land borders with 15 countries and sea borders with eight, and is involved in many disputes. Land disputes include the ones with Bhutan (Doklam plateau), India (Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin) and Nepal (near Dolakha and Solukhumbu districts). Maritime disputes in the South China