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Taiwan has to bolster its defenses and resolve

Japan, in its recent national defense white paper, urged caution over China's military expansionism. Over the course of the past 17 years, the percentage increase of China's military expenditure has been measured in double digits. This year the budget was 244.7 billion yuan (more than US$30 billion), an increase of 12 percent from last year. Nevertheless, these figures are actually just the tip of the iceberg, as many items on the budget have been buried in figures for military equipment and weapons research and development.

At the same time, in order to ensure that its maritime supply lines, particularly for oil and gas, are not in danger of being cut off by any foreign power, China sees the need to strengthen its navy and air force. This is seen as important to provide a stable, reliable basis for the nation's rise. According to the Japanese white paper, China has been building submarines and rapidly modernizing its military, as well as developing its air force's mid-air refuelling capabilities and early-warning systems. These are all in preparation for having a military presence in the Pacific Ocean.

China's rise is now an indisputable fact. Although the Chinese rhetoric focuses on how the next two decades are to be devoted to economic development, the discussion about a "peaceful rise" has cleverly cloaked Beijing's expansionist ambitions. The past several years have seen China purchasing advanced military equipment from Russia, and attempting to import weapons from EU countries. This is surely enough to reveal its ambitions to extend overseas, and to become a dominant force in the Asia-Pacific region.

The rise of China has also precipitated a power struggle in the Asia-Pacific. China's influence in this region is gradually increasing due to its rapid economic and military growth. At the same time, this is squeezing out Taiwan, making it more difficult for the nation to compete on the international stage. It threatens Taiwan by refusing to rule out military action, even as it engages in an all-encompassing, multi-faceted war of attrition, manipulating law, public opinion and psychology.

Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) are using different tactics from those employed by former president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), who relied on written attacks and military threats. Instead, they are using a more inspired and integrated approach, creating a united front against Taiwan.

Faced with this considerable external threat, Taiwan doesn't even have the advantage of a common consensus of opposition, and the pro-Beijing political parties are vying to get Taiwanese agricultural products exported to China independent of our own government, helping China undermine Taipei's authority.

In the face of the ever-increasing military threat from China, the pro-Beijing parties are holding up the passage of the budget which will enable Taiwan to buy US weapons. This is little short of encouraging China to invade Taiwan, and then to expand into the Asia-Pacific region. The repercussions of all this are very worrying indeed.

Given the threat that exists from China, Taiwan should form an Asia-Pacific security community with the US and Japan, to deal with Beijing's military rise. Without strength there is no peace, but Taiwan should neither engage in a senseless mutual escalation with China, nor tie the question of security within the Taiwan Strait to whether or not China will invade Taiwan.

The best way to avoid and prevent an attack from China is for the entire population of Taiwan to demonstrate the resolve and willingness to protect their homeland. This is what is meant by the terms "civilian-based defense" and "psychological defense."

Shu Chin-chiang is chairman of the Taiwan Solidarity Union.

Translated by Paul Cooper
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