But nothing in this "new policy," which apparently is meant to attract the Taiwanese to accept unification, changes China's coercion strategy. For several years, for example, the number of missiles it has aimed at Taiwan has been growing.
If there is anything new it is that, according to the recent publication from the US Department of Defense, China is building its military capability to counter the US' capability to assist Taiwan if needed. Publishing this was meant to enlighten understanding of the potential danger. This has angered China, of course, but it must be of some comfort to them that the purchase of needed military equipment continues to be blocked in Taiwan by the opposition parties.
The migration of large portions of Taiwanese industry to China has presented Beijing with an important opportunity to influence the people of Taiwan in many ways. Its efforts to influence the leaders of individual companies to support friendly political parties or individuals are already apparent. Support for Taiwan's political parties on economic arrangements that will "lock in" dependence on China is another tactic. Pre-mature transport links and some agriculture arrangements also come under this category.
China is using its increasing economic strength to pressure other countries to isolate Taiwan. Its hostile behavior at the WTO, despite previous agreements to work with Taiwan as an equal member, continues. As well, its opposition to Taiwan's full participation in APEC continues, even in matters it had agreed to before; it persists in interfering with Taiwan's participation in any form in the World Health Organization, even after the SARS crisis and now perhaps with the dangers of the spread of bird flu; it is working to prevent the nation's participation in new regional organizations; and it continues to block Taiwan in international financial and economic organizations, with increasing effectiveness.
Whatever interpretation a country has on the status quo, all of these actions have been taking place and growing under that name. The US version of the status quo has meant that Taiwan's status must be resolved peacefully and with the consent of the people of Taiwan. On the surface, this objective is genuine and right. Unfortunately, however, underneath that surface, much is going on that can hardly be considered the status quo. Given the imbalance in the strength of the two sides of the Strait, the status quo under Hu's "new Taiwan policy" is good -- for China.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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