The US Department of Defense's annual report on the military power of China, following a number of delays, has finally been published. The report points out that China's military buildup appears to be geared toward preventing Taiwan's independence. More importantly, however, the report sees the rise of China as a serious challenge to the US' status as the world's superpower.
In a recent meeting in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld articulated US concerns about China's military might and the regional military imbalance that could result from China's massive military spending. Rumsfeld pointed out that the buildup was happening even though China faces no direct threat from any nation.
From the US point of view, China's improving military capability constitutes a direct threat to its security interests. The Pentagon specifically pointed out that China now has the capacity to strike anywhere in the world with its intercontinental ballistic missiles. It stated that China's armed forces have been strengthened to the extent that they now have the capacity to conduct military operations beyond Taiwan. More importantly, given China's long-term modernization drive, the US believes that China represents a possible threat to both the US and nations in the Asia-Pacific region, pointing out that "some of China's military planners are surveying the strategic landscape beyond Taiwan."
China's military modernization is made possible by the country's fast economic growth. This growth has enabled China to develop its own improved military technologies while giving it more spending power to purchase foreign weapons and technology. In particular, Beijing is looking at ways to make its military machine less cumbersome and more dynamic. China's armed forces are now larger than they were at the time of the Korean War. Whereas China formerly relied on Russia to source advanced military equipment, it has recently turned to other nations, including the EU, to purchase equipment and technology. The Pentagon report makes quite apparent the importance of keeping in place the EU weapons embargo on China.
China is in the process of rising politically, economically, diplomatically and militarily, and the US sees China as having reached a strategic crossroads, with three possible paths to choose from. In the first, China will become peacefully integrated as a member of the international community and engage in fair competition. The second possibility is that it will play an increasingly dominant and influential role in an expanding area. The third path will see China concentrating on the challenges it faces in maintaining internal unity.
Beijing now has to make a choice between these paths. With the embers of the "China threat" theory still glowing, the choices it finally makes in response to the US strategy of military containment and diplomacy will be significant not only to Taiwan, but to the entire world.
Finally, I would contend that the main reason the report met with continuous delays was the White House was concerned that the original draft overemphasized the "China threat" theory. The final version offers a considerably watered-down presentation of this theory.
Nevertheless, the entire report is very much preoccupied with China's military rise. In other words, even though Washington makes the threat posed by China to Taiwan the point of departure, one can detect concern over the broader potential threat China represents to Asia and the US itself. And with the successful test-firing of its JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile recently, China is now very confident in its military technology.
Alexander Chung-Chih Chen is a research assistant at the Prospect Foundation.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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