Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) proposed the slogan "peaceful rising" when he came to power, but changed it to "peaceful development" because of worries that more focus would be placed on the "rising" rather than "peaceful." But this shift has not reduced the international community's concern, because China's "rising" and its many potential problems have become mandatory issues in every Asia-Pacific security dialogue.
China's rise is no longer a mere proposition; it is happening. Although the concept centers on the economy, it may bring more than business opportunities to the world. China has sucked away capital for global direct investment, and it enjoys a massive surplus with both the US and the EU. Meanwhile, not only has it become a major consumer of the world's energy, it has also become a major generator of pollution.
But what really catches our eye is China's military expansion. During the fourth Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld pointed out that China's annual military budget is the highest in Asia and the third-highest in the world -- even though no country is threatening it. He asked why Beijing was increasing military investment, purchasing expensive weaponry and continuing to strengthen its capacity for flexible deployment. He also asked why Beijing has increased the number of missiles targeting Taiwan.
But former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger has an opposite view. Kissinger thinks that the US should not compare China with imperial Germany of the early 20th century, or substitute it for the Soviet Union and apply a Cold War policy of military containment. He believes that China's military growth is insufficient to threaten the US.
"Military imperialism is not the Chinese style," he wrote in an editorial published in the Washington Post. "But even at its highest estimate, the Chinese military budget is barely, if at all, ahead of that of Japan."
But Kissinger does not get to the heart of the matter. What really matters is what the US and Japanese governments think.
When US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill visited Brussels last month, he urged the world to respond to China's rise, saying that promoting China's participation in the global political and economic framework was significant to East Asia, and that this was also an important issue for the US and its European allies.
In response, the US Congress last month established a Sino-US task force to study China's economic and trade relationships and diplomatic policies. This month, a group of Congress members also formed the Congressional China Caucus to monitor China's military development. The establishment of these groups shows the US will be dealing with a stronger China in the next 10 years.
Earlier this month, Yoshinori Ono, the head of the Japan Defense Agency, also announced that the US-Japan sea-based "ballistic missile defense" system will enter the development stage next month. Japan hopes to expand the scope of this defense system. The US and Japan will also sign agreements opposing North Korea and China using "non-peaceful means" in the region.
China's rise features an unbalanced distribution of domestic resources. But its resurgence also makes its people proud. It is also arousing more hostility internationally. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the international community.
Facing Hu's pincer tactics through legal, media and psychological warfare, as well as the attempted domesticization of Taiwan's affairs, China's rise clearly poses more challenges than opportunities for Taipei.
Lin Cheng-yi is a research fellow in the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University. TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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