One name frequently mentioned as a presidential pick is Michael Luttig, a Christian conservative currently sitting on a federal circuit court of appeals, who comes from the president's home town, Midland, Texas.
Alternatively, Bush could use the occasion to make some history by opting for a minority appointment, such as Larry Thompson, a black former deputy attorney general now working for PepsiCo, or a conservative Hispanic judge such as Miguel Estrada, Emilio Garza or Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.
The choice of a minority moderate conservative would speed the confirmation process in the Senate, splitting the Democratic opposition. Anyone else is likely to trigger a pitched battle.
For the political activist groups who serve as the pistons in any presidential campaign, the Supreme Court is the grand prize.
Organizations such as the conservative Committee for Justice and the liberal People for the American Way have been marshaling their money and troops for the big battle. Such grassroots groups might well push the Democrats into fighting a costly confirmation battle the party knows it will lose.
"The problem is that the interest groups that are of concern to Democrats might not be willing to accept what they see as rolling over and playing dead," argued Mark Tushnet, a Georgetown University law professor. "These things are as much about satisfying constituency groups as affecting the outcome."
Most of the recent skirmishes in Congress over the filibuster have simply been preparing the ground for the almighty conflict ahead.
Both sides will pump millions of dollars into television advertisements condemning or flattering the candidate judge, and the Senate will have time for little else.
Congress still bears the scars from the bitter confirmation battles over Robert Bork, a conservative academic nominated by former president Ronald Reagan in 1987 and defeated, much to the anger of the Republican right, and Clarence Thomas, who overcame allegations of sexual harassment in 1991.
David O'Brien, a political science professor at the University of Virginia and the author of a book on the Supreme Court, entitled Storm Center, predicted that Bush would raise the stakes of the looming battle by picking a relatively young, committed conservative.
"His propensity is not to compromise on judicial appointments, unlike Clinton or his father," O'Brien said. "And Bush wants to put someone in there who's going to last 20 years at least."
The conventional wisdom has been that Rehnquist will step down next week, at the end of the current court session -- triggering the start of the battle. But the old judge may yet have a surprise up his golden-striped sleeve. Court-watchers say he has been looking relatively spry lately, and still seems to relish his job. Bush may have to wait a little longer to leave his mark on history.
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