Finally, the insurgency as a whole remains nihilistic, focused on destroying the new Iraqi government and the emerging economic and political system rather than articulating a coherent alternative. In many ways, the Iraq insurgency is analogous to urban street gangs: each component shares behavioral and organizational similarities but pursues its own aggrandizement and undertakes autonomous operations within its "turf" rather than pursuing a master plan or strategy.
three paths
The good news for those who desire stability and democracy in Iraq is that an amorphous, disorganized, and nihilistic insurgency cannot "win" in the traditional sense of replacing the government and forming a new regime. The bad news is that an amorphous, disorganized, and nihilistic insurgency can eventually evolve into a coherent, efficient, and purposeful one.
This would obviously pose a much more serious threat, but even an amorphous, disorganized, and nihilistic insurgency can survive and block stability, democratization, and prosperity for many years. To return to the analogy, urban street gangs cannot seize political power, but they can certainly keep their neighborhoods dangerous, backward, and grim.
There are, then, three paths for Iraq: evolution of a more serious insurgency, persistent violence at current levels, or resolution of the insurgency. At least three factors will determine which path that injured nation takes.
One factor is the will of the new government. Insurgent movements that succeed do so because the government's will collapses. It is not clear at this point how much determination Iraq's emerging democratic leaders will have.
A second factor is restraint on the part of the Shi'ite community. There are ominous indications that the relative forbearance of this group may end. If that happens, the insurgency will be superseded by a much more dangerous sectarian civil war.?
The third factor is the willingness of outside groups -- both states and non-state groups -- to prolong Iraq's misery by supporting the insurgency, whether overtly or by inaction. Until states such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, and others vigorously dry up the inflows of people and money that sustain the insurgency, Iraq will never become stable, democratic, and prosperous.
Steven Metz is Research Professor and Chairman of the Department of Regional Strategy and Planning at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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