On Monday, a piece of potentially encouraging news came out of China. According to reports quoted by Hong Kong media, satisfaction over the results of visits by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) has led the Chinese government to consider withdrawing missiles targeting Taiwan in a show of goodwill.
Leaving aside considerations of the veracity of this report, we all know the words, "Repeat a lie a hundred times and it becomes the truth," an adage the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lives by.
The problem is that the Taiwanese people, who are quite used to the CCP's political games and not easily misled, will not readily believe this information. In addition, if China removes its missiles but does not destroy them, this would only be of minor military significance. This is because mobile defenses can be redeployed in a matter of days, and it won't alleviate the threat against this nation. Where's the goodwill in that?
In Taiwan, the pan-blue camp suffered a defeat of sorts in the National Assembly elections, despite the recent visits to China by its two parties' chairmen. This is evidence that -- whether lobbing missiles off the Taiwanese coast or raising the profile of opposition leaders -- Beijing cannot control public opinion in Taiwan or blackmail the Taiwanese people.
At the World Health Assembly (WHA) meeting in May, Beijing reneged on its promises to Lien and Soong regarding WHA participation for Taiwan, and instead continued its suppression of Taiwan's attempts to obtain observer status. That clearly showed China's inconsistency and deceit.
Beijing thinks it is smarter than it really is. When China's National People's Congress passed the "Anti-Secession" Law in April, the Xinhua News Agency, a Beijing mouthpiece, claimed that this was "legislation for peace." It was no surprise, then, that in response to this insult to the intelligence of the international community, papers such as the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times published columns ridiculing this clumsy propaganda. Take another example: When former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) proposed to US President George W. Bush that "China would withdraw its missiles if the US stopped arms sales to Taiwan," he was in effect insulting Bush and in so doing infuriated US officials.
Beijing would do well to take account of the shift in Taiwanese public opinion and the disgust with which the international community regards its dishonesty. It has the opportunity to learn from its recent failure with Lien and Soong that lies and threats do not work.
It would be encouraging if reports of the withdrawal of Chinese missiles are true. But these 700-odd missiles should never have been deployed in the first place. And even if the reports are intended to herald a new era in cross-strait peace, Beijing must realize that a platform for peaceful dialogue cannot be built on lies, because it has to convince 23 million people of its intentions, not just a dictator.
Things are done differently in Taiwan and in China, and Beijing stands to lose heavily if it misjudges the situation yet again.
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