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Chen at a crossroads over cross-strait policy

May 20 marked the fifth anniversary of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) election. After celebrating two more, the one that follows will be the inauguration of a new president. He must feel that his time is running out.

According to a survey conducted prior to May 20, only around 30 percent of the respondents were satisfied with Chen's performance, a 10 percent decline from the previous year. Although the shift in attitude among pan-green supporters as a result of Chen's new centrist approach was not reflected in the results of the National Assembly elections, it has weakened his support.

In 2000, before Chen was inaugurated, I wrote an opinion piece pointing out that since the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) does not enjoy a legislative majority, the most likely area where he could make a breakthrough was in cross-strait relations. When former US president Richard Nixon was in power, he took a hard line on communism, but it was this that allowed him to initiate communication between Washington and Beijing. Even after five years in power, similar tactics are still an option for Chen, but he must realize that the bar has been raised by his short-sighted campaign tactics.

In setting up his cross-strait policy, Chen has to consider the reactions of Washington, Beijing, opposition parties, independence forces in Taiwan, the DPP's factions and public opinion. It is not easy to find a balance between these various forces, but Chen's vacillating and short-sighted tactics have increased the hostility of opponents and raised doubts among supporters. If he really wants to achieve something in the time remaining, he must pursue a consistent political agenda and prepare himself to deal with the criticism that this may engender.

People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) recently said that he would not meet with Chen until the president had settled on a clear political line.

A few days ago, when meeting with representatives from the European Parliament, Chen praised KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Soong for their efforts in the interests of Taiwan (a sharp change from his former criticism of their visits to China), and also suggested that a meeting between him and Chinese President Hu Jintao (湖錦濤) was not impossible. This may be the path Chen has decided on.

Premier Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) announcement and the cancelation of Chen's May 20 speech was an indication that there is still much that needs to be done to resolve dissension within the DPP and achieve inter-party cooperation and cross-strait understanding. Whether any progress will be made in cross-strait relations will be determined in the next few months, as the year-end mayoral and county commissioner elections are drawing near. Once these elections are concluded, discussion of who will succeed Chen will arise, and he will end up being a lame-duck president, whose ability to direct events will be reduced. As such, China will probably prefer to wait for a new president with whom they can make a fresh start.

Chen is at a crossroads, and none of the options before him -- whether to risk war, seek peace or to procrastinate -- are easy. But if political infighting deprives him of the ability to choose one of these roads, then many opportunities will simply pass us by. Whether Chen will succeed in the end will be determined not only by his sincerity, but also by his vision.

Vision refers not only to a skillful political strategy but also to broad political horizons. Chen must rise above personal or partisan motives and think about setting an example for the rest of the world. For the future of cross-strait relations, Chen should work with opposition parties rather than engaging in political infighting and divisive strategies.

Emile Sheng is an assistant professor of political science at Soochow University

TRANSLATED BY DANIEL CHENG
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