Saturday's win helps to reduce China fever

An win by Taiwan's ruling party has taken pressure off independence-minded President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to come up quickly with a new China policy to counter growing amity between opposition parties and Beijing. But while Chen might have bought some time, he still faces the dilemma of having to find a way to reduce tensions with China without compromising his stance in favor of Taiwan sovereignty.

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party won 42.5 percent of the vote in National Assembly elections on Saturday, comfortably beating the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) 38.9 percent.

Before the poll, Chen had been under growing pressure to kowtow to China, which dangled economic rewards in front of Taiwan's 23 million people after meetings with more conciliatory opposition leaders including KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰).

But China's strategy of divide and conquer apparently did not help the KMT in this election, though analysts noted the record-low turnout of 23 percent made the vote a poor barometer for public opinion.

"I think this outcome will give him a bit more maneuvring space in seeking rapprochement with Beijing," said Chu Yun-han (朱雲漢), a political scientist at National Taiwan University.

Despite political stalemate, trade is booming across the Taiwan Strait and opinion polls show the majority of people want better access to China's vast market.

That's why Chinese President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) offers of economic sweeteners have put Chen on the defensive -- a situation that has not fundamentally changed, analysts say.

"The election gave President Chen a new lease within his party," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a political analyst at Soochow University. "But all the policy favors that China is giving Taiwan are putting the incumbent party in a difficult position."

Chen also still under pressure from the US to prevent tensions from flaring in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints.

Some say Chen's shift to a more centrist position this year -- evident in the cautious approval he first gave to opposition visits to China -- indicates he seeks a legacy before his term ends in 2008 as the man who brokered peace with China.

Saturday's poll, however, showed how dependent the DPP's power base is on votes from hardline advocates of Taiwan independence, analysts say.

Bad and confusion over what the election was about meant only the true believers came out to cast ballots.

Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄), a DPP National Assembly member, told a post-election seminar that 25 percent of the DPP's votes had come from hardliners, making them a powerful lobby against any move by Chen to formulate a softer policy towards China.

"Although he cannot achieve de jure independence, he will insist that de facto sovereignty is his bottom line. Therefore I think the chance of him meeting Hu Jintao is nil," Shen said.

A legacy of Taiwan's complicated political system, the National Assembly was elected to ratify constitutional amendments passed by the Legislative Yuan last year.

As both the DPP and KMT support the changes, the reforms to halve the legislature and revamp the electoral system are almost sure to pass, redrawing Taiwan's political landscape in favor of two-party politics.

With the pro-independence lobby pulling Chen to the left, but Washington and the need to broaden the DPP's support base pulling him more towards the middle, analysts say it is still unclear in what direction the president will ultimately head.

Liao Da-chi (廖達琪) of National Sun Yat Sen University said Chen, a former lawyer, has always tried to play both sides.

"Chen's China policy will always be a zig zag and not a straight line," Liao said. "He'll waver between appeasing the DPP hardliners and the moderate voters who want better economic ties with China."