No, the truer interpretation of a probable Blair triumph is that Labour will have won despite Iraq -- and despite Blair. This is quite a challenge for foreign reporters: to explain to their readers an election in which the incumbent is distrusted, even despised, by large numbers of voters -- yet on course for a comfortable victory.
The explanation lies in the fact that tomorrow's election is not, after all, a referendum on the war but a choice as to who should run the UK. On that measure, Labour is still favored over the Conservatives.
What if the predictions are wrong and the Tories do well? That will be simpler to explain. Observers will say that Blair was punished for an unpopular war -- and that Howard struck a potent nerve in the British body politic. Since their campaign has been so relentlessly focused on immigration, Tory success will be understood as proof that the UK is hostile to outsiders. Brits may not like it, but that's how they will be seen. For elections are about more than policies and programs -- they are also moments where nations say something about who they are. Next week the world will be listening.
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