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Editorial: Don't fall for China's divisive tactics

After China's enactment of its "Anti-Secession" Law last month resulted in a fierce response from Taiwan and other countries, Beijing launched another attack -- this time aimed at Taiwanese farmers.

In accordance with a directive issued by China's Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶), the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) told Taiwanese media that Beijing is preparing to earmark "30 billion" for the purchase of 10 types of agricultural products from Taiwan. But no one seems to know whether the "30 billion" in spending refers to yuan or New Taiwan dollars.

Beijing will also select five Chinese cities to trade with Taiwan directly by establishing a so-called "green channel," with simplified customs processing that will reduce shipment time for produce to ensure its freshness.

Leaving aside Wen's gaffe in saying "Tainan" farmers when he meant "Southern Taiwan" farmers, the Taiwanese public recognizes China's "agricultural war" as yet another sinister move to achieve its political goals.

Through reports from China we have learned that five of the 10 products are star fruit, banana, mango, papaya and pineapple, and that they will receive express customs handling and preferential taxes. Strangely, Taiwanese agricultural experts say that the total value of Taiwan's annual fruit harvest is under NT$30 billion, so there is no need for China to spend so much buying up all of Taiwan's fruit. Unless, of course, the sum includes kickbacks for Chinese officials and commissions for Taiwanese middlemen. If we are talking about 30 billion yuan (US$3.6 billion), the sum is even more preposterous.

Experts say that the 10 fruits China is discussing all have a short storage life. As Taiwan's farmers will naturally wish to reduce losses incurred through extended shipping, it is evident that China's aim is to manipulate Taiwan's farmers to put pressure on the government to open up direct links. Analysts suspect that China is using this proposed purchase of fruit as another means of forcing the direct links into existence.

There is another factor at work. Last year Taiwan's agricultural produce exported to China was valued at just NT$9.3 billion. If Beijing now decides to use three times that amount to purchase 10 types of produce, farmers are bound to rapidly invest in new equipment to generate greater output and meet the increased demand. China would only have to call a stop to these purchases, and Taiwan's massive investment in new equipment would be lost overnight. Those who engage in eel, prawn and small abalone cultivation learned a painful lesson after Chinese government policy suddenly changed direction, halting imports of such products from Taiwan.

Even if China promises it will not suddenly pull out of agricultural markets, the pricing of this produce is likely to be manipulated by Beijing, given the amount it is purchasing. It is foreseeable that prices will gradually be forced down, leaving farmers without profit.

Political analysts in this country have pointed out that China is acting to assist the pan-blue camp by buying up votes in the traditionally green agricultural sector. If the government does not respond, then its support in southern Taiwan will eventually evaporate.

It seems likely that if China really does spend NT$30 billion a year through 2008 to purchase produce from southern Taiwan, that year's presidential election will certainly be won by a Beijing-supported blue camp candidate. To spend NT$90 billion to purchase a government friendly to Beijing does not seem an excessive price to pay.

We hope the nation's farmers and political leaders will not harbor any illusions about the real intent of Beijing's policy -- which is to sow division by pitting farmers against the government. If they can see through China's strategy, the nation will be able to defeat it.
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