Editorial: Avoid China's chopping block

On Tuesday night, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) presided over a high-level political and economic summit in response to China's passage of the "Anti-Secession" Law (反國家分裂法) and the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) recent visit to China. The summit concluded with a resolution stipulating that the government will no longer allow investment in China to go unchecked. Instead, it will adopt a more active policy to prevent the government and Taiwanese businessmen in China from being manipulated by Beijing and thereby reduce China's threat to Taiwan.

In the wake of the economic "miracles" of Asia's four little tigers -- Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong -- during the 1980s, they, like all other economies that had reached a high level of economic development, experienced stagnation. Seeking new markets for their capital, Western countries uniformly adopted the slogan that "the 21st century is a century for the Chinese" and backed this up with millions of dollars in investments. No surprise that when China's economy rocketed toward unprecedented prosperity, Taiwanese businessmen -- ?taking advantage of our geographic proximity, common language and culture -- were quick to jump on the investment bandwagon.

Everyone knows that the more Taiwan invests in China, the more control China exerts on Taiwan. But as the saying goes, "If a business is profitable, people will do it even though it may get them killed" (殺頭生意有人做). This expression clearly shows the nature of businesspeople everywhere, who will pursue economic benefit while ignoring individual and collective risks.

Case in point: Chi Mei Group founder Hsu Wen-lung (許文龍) was once a beacon for pro-independence forces. But his recent support for China's "Anti-Secession" Law says it all.

The influence of Taiwan's businesspeople and government is insignificant compared to that of Europe, the US and Japan which have massive investments of capital in China. Taiwan can only drift with the current, which is carrying the country into a trap, in which China aims to use economic pressure to influence politics. With eyes wide open, we are putting our head on China's chopping block.

Reviewing the history of global economic development, it's clear that it isn't difficult for a nation to grow from nothing. However, once it transforms into a developed country, it faces the challenge of economic stagnation. Today's Europe and the US are good examples of what Asia's "tigers" may face. Seen in this light, we can predict that after a certain point, China's economy will stop growing. When this happens, international capital will inevitably look for new markets. After all, the Chinese economy did not sprout from Jack's magic bean, and so it will not grow indefinitely like his beanstalk.

What happens when China reaches a bottleneck in its economic development? The government should be looking ahead and drawing up economic blueprints that are more far-sighted. For the consequence of an economic boom is often an economic bust. How will Hsu react if he lives to see the day when profits from the Chinese market dry up and capital goes elsewhere? How will he think then of his recent political betrayal for the sake of immediate financial gain?

In addition to drawing up more farsighted policies, there are other things the government can do. It needs to work out ways to allow Taiwanese businesses to continue making money in China while at the same time blocking the cross-strait flow of critical technology, thereby protecting Taiwan's technological edge.

It is important that Taiwan sit tight until the current phase of "China fever" passes. We should not forget that the government retains control over policy. It should quickly set up a mechanism to prevent the Chinese from using business to influence politics, and stop attempts by the opposition to become an accomplice in China's ambition of isolating and attacking Taiwan. The government must guard its right to lead the nation, and not allow opposition politicians to usurp this role.