At the same time, politics has a way of confounding economic projections. Creating a rule of law and institutions for political participation has lagged behind economic growth, and growing inequality, massive internal migration, an inadequate social safety net and corruption could foster political instability. Indeed, some observers fear instability caused by a weak, rather than a rising, China.
As long as China's economy does grow, its military power will likely increase, thus making China appear more dangerous to its neighbors and complicating the US' commitments in Asia. A RAND study projects that by 2015, China's military expenditure will be more than six times higher than Japan's, and its accumulated military capital stock will be roughly five times higher (measured at purchasing power parity).
Whatever the accuracy of such assessments of China's military growth, the outcome will also depend on what the US and other countries do. The key to military power in the information age depends on the ability to collect, process, disseminate, and integrate complex systems of space-based surveillance, high speed computers, and "smart" weapons. China and others will develop some of these capabilities, but, according to many military analysts, China is not likely to close the gap with the US soon.
China's inability to compete with the US on a global basis does not mean that it could not challenge the US in East Asia, or that war over Taiwan is impossible. Weaker countries sometimes attack when they feel backed into a corner, such as Japan did at Pearl Harbor or China did when it entered the Korean War in 1950.
If, for example, Taiwan were to declare independence, China would likely intervene with armed force, regardless of the perceived economic or military costs. But it would be unlikely to win such a war, and prudent policy on both sides can make such a war unlikely.
There is no need for the US and China to go to war. Not every rising power leads to war -- witness America's overtaking of Britain at the end of the 19th century. If China's rise remains peaceful, it promises great benefits to its own people and to its neighbors -- and to Americans. But, remembering Thucydides' advice, it will be important not to mistake analysts' theories for reality, and to continue pointing this out to political leaders and publics.
Joseph Nye, a former US assistant secretary of defense, is distinguished service professor at Harvard, and author of Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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