The shadow of the Tiananmen Square Massacre hangs over China, no matter how much its leadership might try to ignore and forget it. Its ghost surfaced once again with the death of former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) secretary-general Zhao Ziyang (
The obvious question to ask is why this should be so.
Economic growth has expanded the number of middle-class people with a stake in the system. At this point of time they are not keen to rock the boat and seem to share the party's concern that political stability -- with the communists in power -- is necessary for continuing growth and prosperity.
The conventional wisdom is that an expanded middle class will create the pressure necessary to open up the political system. Therefore economic growth will eventually lead to an open democratic polity. The CCP is aware that the trajectory of economic growth may eventually lead to political liberalization.
But while the CCP might hold stage-managed local elections to appease local sensitivities, it is quite adamant about the exercise of a monopoly on power at the national level. If anyone had hoped that Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) might usher in political change, his recent rounding up of "incurable" democratic romantics has destroyed such illusions.
China's leadership believes that the country need not follow the conventional trajectory. It seeks to co-opt much of the country's middle class into making China into a superpower. There is, therefore, an attempt to create a shared vision. China's new rich and new middle class appear excited by this prospect and might not want to risk it all by experimenting with democracy.
But to keep alive this shared vision, the leadership needs to constantly show that the country is heading in that direction. This doesn't necessarily mean securing military victories. What it does require is that China is heard, respected and feared as circumstances demand.
In this respect China's economic growth has created an aura of success. The word is out that China's economic success is good for all countries because China is the new powerhouse for the global economy. Many countries therefore wish to stay on good terms with China.
Not only are an increasing number of countries courting Beijing, they are also exercising self-censorship to put China's achievements in a better light. Gone are the days when China's human-rights violations were the subject of substantial international concern. When these violations are occasionally brought up by a human-rights watchdog, it hardly seems to register.
Beijing is actively fostering an image of entitlement to reverence. Whenever leaders go on state visits there are elaborate dos and don'ts for host countries to follow. Some host countries even go overboard in creating a lasting impression. For instance, when Hu Jintao visited France last year, French President Jacques Chirac had the Eiffel Tower illuminated red in his honor.
In Australia the government is only too keen to accommodate China's sensitivities. Hu's visit, for instance, was such a sanitized affair that he seemed to be visiting a vassal state. Beijing also seeks to influence local politics in obstructing the activities of Falun Gong and other organizations in their bad books.
For instance, Falun Gong has been excluded from celebrations for the Lunar New Year by a committee of prominent people in Sydney's Chinese community. This year, when Sydney's new mayor enquired into the matter, a committee spokesman said, "there are a lot of issues involved. But if we support Falun Gong, and they are banned in China, it is realistic to say that China could affect our trade and cultural concessions."
As another example, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's regular trips to China -- at least two a year -- seem to lack the substantive agenda one might expect from a state visit. But he still must pay homage.
China's exalted image abroad gives its leaders a legitimacy of sorts at home, particularly among the growing middle class. At the same time, among Asian neighbors it is already emerging as a crucial political and economic player -- so much so that much of the region's media is reluctant to publish anything critical of Beijing. In the absence of any substantive appraisal of China, the oligarchy continues to feel quite satisfied with how things are developing.
But that is where the danger lies. Even though China's middle class seems to share the CCP's vision of making China a superpower, this in itself is not a sustainable ingredient. So far China's superpower image is based more on a dream than reality. It is still a third-world country. Its military power still lags far behind the US and Russia.
Admittedly, China's economy has done well. But domestically it is also creating disturbing social and economic imbalances: The urban-rural divide, misallocation of national resources, non-performing bank loans and pervasive corruption are only some of these problems. Social inequities often erupt in local clashes. And China's largely urban-driven economy excludes most of its massive rural population.
There is no coherent institutional mechanism to deal with these and many other issues, apart from extinguishing spotfires here and there. This is China's greatest weakness: It lacks a politically self-sustaining system based on a popular mandate.
It is true that the transition from late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) to former president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) to Hu has been largely peaceful. But there is always a sense of foreboding on such occasions because of the secretive, mafia-like management by a cabal of political operators. And if they fall out among themselves again, China will be in all sorts of trouble.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney.
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