As one Chinese diplomat has put it: "With the US, we don't believe we are rivals?We believe cooperation with the US is very important for us. We are not interested in competing for world power. We have too many people to worry about." In other words, China wants to mind its own business, and is not worrying about US global dominance. In fact, China is keen to establish the Asia-Pacific region as its co-prosperity sphere, without committing the mistakes of imperial Japan. It hopes to achieve what Japan couldn't by emphasizing its "peaceful rise" (or "peaceful development") by neutralizing or co-opting the US.
There are problems; Taiwan is an obvious one. China can't annex Taiwan, with the US committed to defend it. With a view to pressure Washington into watering down its Taiwan commitment, it is following a carrot-and-stick policy. The recent comments by US Secretary of State Colin Powell seemed designed to politically placate Beijing, without weakening US resolve to defend Taiwan if attacked. But as a global power, if the nature of its relationship with China is competitive and combative (as is the case over a period), Washington can't afford to let China walk away with Taiwan.
Japan is another problem because of its security alliance with the US, and because Tokyo increasingly regards China as a security threat. In its recently released defense policy document, "China, which has significant influence in the region's security, is pushing forward its nuclear and missile capabilities." It adds, "It is also trying to expand its scope of naval activities and attention must be paid to these developments."
Who would blame Japan after detecting a Chinese submarine and a survey vessel in its waters. Beijing has some leverage on the North Korean nuclear proliferation issue, where the US needs its help. Will it deliver? And is the US prepared to pay the price of turning the Asia-Pacific region into a Chinese lake? It doesn't fit into the US global strategy.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney.
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