A year ago, China began talking of its "peaceful rising," but only six months later, they gradually stopped mentioning it, instead replacing it with the phrase "peaceful development." This does not mean, however, that Beijing has given up on realizing its peaceful rising. The phrase "peaceful development" sounds softer and is less likely to raise suspicions in the outside world.
"Rising" implies rapid ascent as well as the appearance of a new hegemon and competition for power and conflict, and it also carries certain differences from Deng Xiaoping's (
Southeast Asia is what China wants most, and this is also the region where we can first expect to see a multipolar situation substitute the current US unipolarity. The leaders in Beijing are very fond of saying that Chinese development cannot ignore Asia, but that Asian prosperity also is dependent on China. If China is unable to become a dominant power in Asia, there can be no talk of a Chinese rise in the region. China has already become the biggest target for foreign investment in Asia, and it is also the region's largest importer.
ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, India and China all enjoy trade surpluses. Trade between China and ASEAN is expected to break through US$100 billion this year, approximately three times the amount of trade between Taiwan and ASEAN last year.
China's rise in Southeast Asia not only relies on its economic strength, but also on carefully thought out strategic planning. It is leaving even Japan, the US and South Korea in the dust. In contrast to Japanese Premier Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, Wen made at least 10 concrete suggestions at the APEC summit in Chile last month.
These suggestions included: China and Indonesia agreeing to increase annual trade to US$20 billion; building a mechanism for dialogue and cooperation between China's and ASEAN's chief prosecutors and ministers of youth affairs and energy based on the existing mechanism for cooperation between their ministers of foreign affairs, economy, communications and customs; making 2006 a year of China-ASEAN cooperation and suggesting the setting up of a China-ASEAN group of leadership figures; Beijing will set up a US$15 million fund for the promotion of Asian cooperation to the purpose of strengthening cooperation between China and ASEAN.
Other suggestions from China included leading an academic study into the feasibility of an East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA); setting up an East Asian Community with the long term goal of cooperation between ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea, and supporting a leading role for ASEAN; backing the ASEAN suggestion to hold an Southeast Asian summit and suggesting that Malaysia organize the first summit; participating in the draft for a Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone at an early date and having China become an observer in ASEAN's East ASEAN Growth Area.
After China occupied Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands in 1995, it has taken a softer and more friendly approach to the countries in Southeast Asia. Although some of these countries want the US, Japan and India to balance Chinese influence, Beijing's aggressive behavior is transforming the region into its own playground.
In particular, Beijing's "three neighbors" diplomacy (creating prosperity, harmony and stability among its neighbors) towards its neighboring countries is centered around the idea that "big countries are crucial and peripheral countries are important" and uses political, economic, energy and cultural means to strengthen China's position as the leader of Southeast Asia.
Although Taiwan's investment in, and labor imports from, Southeast Asia surpass China's, Taiwan's decade-old "go south" policy is insufficient to counterbalance China. Southeast Asia has always dealt with the political and economic separation between China and Taiwan by welcoming Taiwanese investment while mostly withholding their political support.
Following the rise of China, Taiwan's room to speak up has been gradually circumscribed. Taiwan's resources are limited, and it is not placing enough emphasis on Southeast Asia, instead concentrating almost exclusively on the US and Japan. It is not very strange that Taiwan is coming up short.
China's rise in Southeast Asia not only challenges the influence of the US and Japan, it also makes it increasingly difficult for Taiwan to make friends in the region. In contrast to China's peaceful development, Taiwan is currently going through a chaotic period of political deconstruction and reconstruction. The fact that Southeast Asian countries are not on Taiwan's side is evidence that Taiwan's "go south" policy is an empty slogan.
Although China also has its "three neighbors" slogan, its ability to execute should be reason for Taiwan to engage in some soul-searching.
Lin Cheng-yi is director of the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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