In response to the latest development since the US presidential election, President Chen Shui-bian (
From his Double Ten National Day speech to the recent 10 points, Chen's strategy in the triangular Taiwan-China-US relationship is obviously to combat China's "dark forces" with Taiwan's "sunshine policy."
Taipei and Washington have lost almost all their mutual trust in the face of the Sino-US constructive cooperative partnership shaped by Sept. 11, and Chen's "one country on each side" dictum proposed in August 2002, as well as the uproars caused by his push for a new constitution through a referendum during his presidential campaign.
This leads us to a relatively unfavorable position in the triangular relationship. Not only is US President George W. Bush worried that Taiwan will cause troubles for the US, but he is also worried that the US will be dragged into a cross-strait war if it breaks out.
Although the US was positive about Chen's inaugural speech on March 20, it has doubts about Tai-wan's push for a new constitution and it sees the country as a potential threat to regional stability. To dispel US doubts, Chen emphasized in his Oct. 10 speech that China's military force poses "the greatest `shadows of terror' and `forces of darkness'" to the status quo in the Strait, regional stability and world peace.
He also proposed establishing a framework for cross-strait peace -- including taking the spirit of the 1992 meeting in Hong Kong as the basis for talks, establishing a mechanism for military mutual trust, reviewing the arms policies of both sides, establishing a code of conduct across the Strait to guarantee permanent peace, formulating a plan that provides convenient and efficient means to facilitate chartered flights for passengers and cargo and establishing a committee for cross-strait peace and development.
However, a week before the US presidential election, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said in Beijing that "Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation ... So both sides should move forward toward a peaceful unification."
Both Powell and the Department of State later clarified that the US' Taiwan policy remains unchanged, and reaffirmed the "six assurances." But Taipei still feels uneasy, worrying that Powell's words were a sign of Washington's compromise to Beijing on the cross-strait issue.
Therefore, before Chinese President Hu Jintao (
Chen's 10 points were directed at Washington, as the first point clearly expresses Taiwan's appreciation to the US support, and emphasizes that "Taiwan and the US -- as an alliance of shared-values based on existing foundations -- should continue to collaborate together to safeguard peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region."
The third point upholds the existence of the Republic of China (ROC) and its democracy to deny Beijing's "one China" principle.
In terms of the sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth points, they concretely set out Chen's ideas for maintaining cross-strait peace and stability. These ideas include a large force reduction of 100,000 troops by the end of 2008, a ban on the use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, the establishment of military buffer zones and setting up a "Taiwan Strait consultation mechanism" for military security.
To be blunt, the two sides are unlikely to establish a cross-strait mechanism for military security before a political compromise is made. Nevertheless, Taiwan's goodwill and China's threat have exactly highlighted the difference between the "sunshine policy" and "dark forces."
By taking a friendly tone, Taipei is striving for US support, hoping that Bush will not make any concessions at the APEC summit.
Looking realistically at all 10 points, what really can be done is only the fourth point, which suggests that "both sides can use the Taiwan-Hong Kong commercial air route negotiations as a model to start consultation regarding cargo and passenger charted flights," because China's Taiwan Affairs Office already agreed to accept this during its press conference on Oct. 27.
Finally, Chen's 10 points were also made to pave a road for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win the Dec. 11 legislative elections. In fact, he recently defined the DPP's legislative campaign theme as creating a country that is "happy and safe," in order to attract middle-of-the-road voters. This will further expand his power base and help the green camp win a majority in the legislature.
The real purpose of Chen's 10 points was to package the ruling party as a party of peace and development, while portraying the blue camp as a symbol of conflict and destruction. Will his campaign strategy work? Let's wait and see.
Tung Chen-yuan is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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