President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) Double Ten National Day speech was much anticipated for what he would have to say on the cross-strait issue. After perusing the speech, Chen's response to China's May 17 Statement can be summarized as follows: "maintain our current stance, reduce tensions, increase consensus, and create a win-win situation."
In the May 17 Statement, China used harsh and uncompromising language to offer Taiwan two choices: retreat or war. In contrast, the tenor of Chen's speech was to find a situation in which both sides can benefit.
In the May 17 Statement, China stated that "Taiwan independence" activities were the most disruptive factor in cross-strait relations. As it stated, "As long as they [Taiwan leaders] recognize that there is only one China in the world and both the mainland and Taiwan belong to that one and same China, abandon the `Taiwan Independence' stance and stop the separatist activities, then cross-strait relations can hold out a bright prospect of peace, stability and development."
In contrast, Chen emphasized that the constant deployment of missiles targeting Taiwan -- rather than Taiwan independence activities -- constitute the greatest threat to the peace and security of the region and even the world. Chen insisted that Taiwan's sovereignty belonged to Taiwan's 2.3 million people. He also emphasized that the Republic of China (ROC) was Taiwan, a country in which sovereignty resided in the people and which should therefore be a member of the UN.
Since last September, the question that most worried China is whether Taiwan would use the creation of a new constitution as a way of achieving Taiwan independence. In his National Day speech, Chen made a sincere invitation to members of the ruling and opposition camps to establish a Committee for Cross-strait Peace and Development to jointly promote constitutional amendments, and to build consensus and cooperation among government and opposition forces. In making this announcement, Chen hopes to rid China of its suspicions by assuring Beijing that the proposed "constitutional re-engineering" and a discussion of Taiwan's sovereignty are not possible under current domestic political conditions.
First, in his speech, Chen proposed that both sides use the basis of the 1992 meeting in Hong Kong to seek possible formats for future talks that are "not necessarily perfect but acceptable." Chen added that as long as Taiwan's 2.3 million people agree, he would not reject any format for a future cross-strait political relationship. Although his speech did not directly address the issue of "one China," Chen was showing his goodwill toward China in calling for increased consensus across the Strait.
Second, if the barrier placed by China regarding the cross-strait issue can be overcome, the two sides will achieve significant consensus on ending the standoff in the Taiwan Strait and in establishing military confidence mechanisms. Chen went on to suggest that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait carry out arms control and reassessment of arms procurement, and seek to establish a code of conduct across the Taiwan Strait. Regardless of whether China agrees or not, these proposals are useful in calming domestic opposition to an arms race, and also make it easier for the US to support Taiwan's position.
In October 2002, then Chinese president Jiang Zemin (
Third, Chen proposed that the two sides should negotiate for "convenient and efficient means to facilitate chartered flights for passengers and cargo," to further the three links across the Strait. If the two sides of the Strait can realize direct charter flights without the need to stop over at a third location, this would be a way of gradually establishing comprehensive, direct and bilateral links.
In the May 17 Statement, China issued an ultimatum to Taiwan: retreat or war! Chen has responded without abasing himself or showing any arrogance, saying that "cross-strait relations are not necessarily a zero-sum game, there will never be a winner unless it's a win-win situation for both sides." He emphasized that in the event of a conflict, both sides will come out losers and that both sides of the Strait desire peace, economic development and social stability.
This desire was not unique to Taiwan. For this reason, he suggested that both sides of the Strait must show restraint and not make the issues more complex than they need to be. Taiwan is willing to step back first, and has suggested the basis of the 1992 meeting in Hong Kong to seek possible formats for future talks. He hoped that China will also retreat one step, so that a win-win situation can be created.
Sooner or later, China has to face up to the reality of the Democratic Progressive Party's administration of Taiwan and Chen's goodwill. But now, both the US presidential elections and Taiwan's legislative elections are imminent, and it is possible that China still doesn't have sufficient confidence in Chen's gestures. It is possible that Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) will wait until the beginning of next year when he gives a commemorative speech on Jiang's "Eight Represents" statement to make an official response to Chen's talk.
If Chen is able to maintain the position he outlined in his National Day speech in the run-up of the legislative election, and establish a basis of mutual trust in the discussions over direct charter flights, I believe that there will be an opportunity for a thawing in the relationship between Taiwan and China in the spring.
Tung Chen-yuan is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
TRANSLATED BY Ian Bartholomew
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