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`Peaceful rising' is a big chance for Taiwan

Since taking office, Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) has made the ideology of "peaceful rising" the keystone of his development strategy, and has actively promoted it internationally. There have been numerous rumors that Central Military Commission Chairman Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) criticisms of Hu's policies have brought the whole foundation of "peaceful rising" into question. Despite this, Chinese academics have continued to give support and ideological backing to "peaceful rising." Ever since prominence was given to the statement that "the Taiwan issue and Sino-US relations are the two biggest obstacles to peaceful rising," greater definition has been given to the extent and significance of the "peaceful rising" strategy that is the ideological mainstay of Hu and Premier Wen Jia-bao's (溫家寶) faction.

"Peaceful rising" is founded on considerations of global governance and comprehensive security. Under this ideological umbrella, it promotes interaction for mutual benefit, focusing on cross-border security issues. So regardless of the real intent behind "peaceful rising," it is certainly in step with trends in international security.

But based on the remark about Taiwan and Sino-US relations, we must acknowledge that Taiwan does not fall within the framework of the "peaceful rising" ideology. If the US supported Taiwan's independence, or if Taiwan declared independence, China would have to sacrifice the last 20 to 30 years of its development and even its hosting of the 2008 Olympics in order to contest the issue militarily. We must recognize this as fundamental.

As manifested in policy implementation, "peaceful rising" is associated with China's projection of "soft power," a concept promoted by US academic Joseph Nye. Soft power is the ability to get what you want by attracting and persuading others to adopt your goals. The emphasis China is putting on soft power can be see in the work of Chinese academics to develop a "national image," as well as the military's use of public opinion, legal and psychological methods to achieve its strategic ends.

But the development of soft power does not necessarily conflict with the development of conventional hard power, and China is in no way neglecting the build-up of its military and economic structures.

For China, the important question is how to ensure balanced development of soft and hard power. China measures the tension between these two types of power and attempts to weigh the relative advantages of using each. As a result it is likely to favor the avoidance of conflict.

But if either of the two obstacles to "peaceful rising" lead to a crisis, then they are likely to use force to resolve the problem.

Nye's soft power is not very different from the soft power proposed by Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) not long ago. Indeed, the aims of China's peaceful rising are not dissimilar to the situation in which Taiwan currently finds itself.

Moreover, peace is one of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) main aims, and the issues on which China and Taiwan can cooperate vastly outnumber those that bring them into conflict. This is clearly a basis for improving cross-strait relations.

We have to be alert for the real motives behind the theoretical language. But as long as the directions the two countries are taking are mutually consistent -- with both seeking advantage and hoping for more opportunities to interact -- then this is an opportunity that the government should not miss.

Chu Hsin-min is the director of the Mainland Affairs Program at the Prospect Foundation. Chen Ming-hsien is a research assistant at the foundation.

Translated by Ian Bartholomew
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