A campaign is like riding a bike: the more momentum you have, the harder it is to knock you over.
But if you're just barely moving, or trying to stand still, even the slightest push will make you tumble. The key lies in whether you can seize the momentum and put yourself in the position to win.
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
Last week, Ma's father Ma Ho-ling (馬鶴凌) said in an interview with a Malaysia-based newspaper that he wanted his son to run for president, but that he was worried that there are "various elements" that are unfriendly to the mayor's road to the presidency -- including the refusal by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) to relinquish power.
The senior Ma denied such a report and claimed he had no intention of defaming Lien and Soong. The junior Ma echoed his father's clarification and reiterated his support for Lien's leadership. Nevertheless, the idea that Ma should step up and take over the leadership of the pan-blues has been floating around ever since they lost the March presidential election.
The senior Ma's words revealed the dilemma facing the pan-blue camp as well as the mayor's lack of decisiveness in terms of grasping the pulse of the public. Since Lien and Soong have demonstrated their unwillingness to leave the political scene, even when as public support for them has declined to new lows, it is imperative for new leadership to revive the alliance from the last electoral defeat.
But it appears Ma doesn't have the guts to redirect the radical wing of the pan-blue camp's persistent boycott of President Chen Shui-bian's (
Not only has Ma failed to meet pan-blue supporters' call to accelerate internal power succession, he downplayed every possible speculation about his quick take-over of the KMT chairmanship. Avoiding an internal power struggle and letting Lien take responsibility for the year-end legislative elections are among Ma's greatest concerns.
Being characterized as a moderate, highly educated, "black-gold"-free political figure within the KMT, Ma enjoys wide support from across the political spectrum.
But when it comes to the question of running for president, Ma lacks a countrywide grassroots endorsement that every presidential candidate needs. Moreover, while Ma has enjoyed a consistently high approval rating as mayor of Taipei, his teammates in the city government have been struggling to catch up with their leader.
In other words, Ma's city council might become the stumbling block for the mayor himself. The city government's ineptness in cracking down on the sex industry and police corruption has had a devastating affect on Ma's credibility. Further, the city's slow response to the flood caused by Typhoon Nari two years also displayed a lack of crisis management ability.
The only explanation for Ma's hesitation to move forward now is timing. Michael Jordan was able to hit the winning shot at the buzzer in part because he wanted the ball when the game was on the line. A determined leader is willing to take a risk. In the face of the country's nimble political culture, aggressiveness is the key to victory.
Liu Kuan-teh is a political commentator based in Taipei.
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