On the afternoon of June 30, Tropical Storm Mindulle began to slowly move northward from Luzon Island in the Philippines. The high pressure zone over the Pacific, which had directed the tropical storm in a westerly direction, weakened, causing the storm to move forward slowly, constantly changing direction, giving weather forecasters a major headache. Later, on July 1 and July 2, the storm moved northward along the east coast of Taiwan, and on the morning of July 2 the center of the storm moved from the Tamsui River out to sea. Over the two following days, however, strong southwesterly winds caused heavy rains and flooding in the center and south of the country.
Before the storm, the Taichung area experienced record-high temperatures and afterward was drenched by continuous rains. These unexpected events are deeply disturbing. On the one hand, although the Central Weather Bureau kept issuing warnings, these warnings were obviously indecisive and unclear, and the many estimated possible changes to the situation confused the general public. On the other hand, most people thought that Mindulle was merely a tropical storm that was moving along the east coast, and they did not expect that it would have any significant effect after leaving Taiwan. Given the lack of anticipation, it is particularly difficult to accept the disaster for the central and southern regions.
The winds brought by Mindulle resulted in record temperatures of 37.4?C in Hsinchu and 39.9?C in Taichung. The slow progress also resulted in rarely-seen tornados along the coastal regions of Yunlin and Chiayi counties.
In addition, the storm coincided with the Joint University Entrance Exam. Should the exam period have been extended because of this? Since the issue involves tens of thousands of students and their parents, the authorities in charge should give the issue thorough consideration. Fortunately, although students in some regions were affected by the bad weather, none of them died or was injured. Judging from the disaster resulting from Tropical Storm Mindulle and given the unreliable nature of weather forecasts, future decisions should integrate concerns over possible climatic changes. This is the only way to avoid the difficult situation that arises when reality does not coincide with forecasts.
This time around, a cautious Central Weather Bureau kept explaining how difficult it is to predict the weather accurately, and made public comparisons with the forecasting methods used in the US and Japan. Its cautious treatment of the situation is in fact a reflection of the pressure experienced by weather forecasting personnel.
Two factors may have contributed to the difficulty of forecasting the development of Tropical Storm Mindulle.
First, this storm approached the country from the southeast. If there had been a small change in direction, it could have moved toward the west coast, directly hitting Hengchun, or moved along the east coast. Each route would have resulted in differences in regional impact.
Second, the abnormal weakening of high pressure zones over the Pacific is a result of changes in global atmospheric circulation, and it therefore also affects the movement of typhoons and tropical storms in the vicinity of Taiwan. Forecasters in other countries used different models to predict Mindulle's course, which suggests that, given the abnormal climatic conditions, there is still much room for improvement in typhoon forecasting.
In recent years, it has become axiomatic that it is difficult to grasp the frequent changes in direction of typhoons in the region. Early last month, Typhoon Conson was first forecast to move toward Hengchun. It later changed direction toward the southwest of the country, and then again toward the east coast. In the end, it moved rapidly away from Taiwan, bringing far less precipitation and weaker winds than anticipated. The difficulty of typhoon forecasting is not only an intellectual challenge for forecasters, but also a test of patience. With limited resources and few scientific breakthroughs, developments are limited despite the efforts of meteorologists.
To deal with these phenomena, the government should provide further assistance to researchers. Feasible ways of doing this would be to initiate aerial monitoring entering directly into the eye of the typhoon to get an effective grasp of timely information affecting its development. Second, initiate the development of models integrating the mutual effects of regional circulation, typhoon circulation and topographical impact to get an understanding of changes in a typhoon's path and force as early as possible. Third, improve the ability to make timely precipitation forecasts, and change the current bad practices of overall daily precipitation reports and inflexibly defined forecast reports in favor of dynamic, continuous reporting of precipitation by area.
With the increasing difficulty of typhoon forecasting, the
disaster-relief buffer time before and after a typhoon will become shorter and shorter, and possible disaster and damage levels will increase. This is exactly what we have long been calling for: given a trend toward climatic abnormalities and increasing difficulties in weather forecasting, the government should plan active measures for responding to the uncertainty of climatic changes. Most important are: respect for nature, understanding the intensity of possible changes, planning for the worst possible scenario and early response.
The continuous natural disasters Taiwan has experienced over the past 10 years are the result of global climatic changes and a problem faced by every country around the world. Taiwanese authorities have still not issued a public "Climate Change White Paper" to explain the country's understanding of long-term response strategies to this problem.
No wonder that some people go the beach when there's a typhoon coming!
Tropical Storm Mindulle reminded us of the film The Day After Tomorrow.
The film tells the story of how long-term environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions intensify the greenhouse effect, creating global warming and bringing about rapid climatic changes on a global scale as a result of thermohaline circulation no longer changing in synch with the climate in general. Although we cannot agree with the exaggerated descriptions of climatic changes described in the film, we support the stress it puts on pollution being the main reason for climatic change and the importance it places on forecasts and preventive responses.
Maybe seeing this film after the passing of Tropical Storm Mindulle, however, will change the idea that man is mightier than nature, and make people understand what damage may result from ignoring nature.
Liu Chung-ming is a professor in the department of atmospheric science at National Taiwan University. Young Chea-yuan is an adjunct professor in the department of atmospheric science at Chinese Cultural University.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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