The first thing Beijing should do is drop its continued reference to "one country, two systems." This has always been unacceptable to the people of Taiwan; China's recent heavy-handed cancellation of its pledge to allow greater democracy in Hong Kong makes it even more so.
Instead, it should offer a "one nation, two states; one country, two governments" formula that would put meaning behind its offer of an "equal-footed" approach. Taiwan's leadership would be hard-pressed to reject such an approach, even if some in the DPP or TSU would no doubt strongly object.
There are many other things Beijing could do to draw Chen down the "right" path. It could support Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) as a "health entity," a formulation which would offer Taipei some "international living space." Chen has effectively used China's continued blockage of Taiwan's WHO participation against those who support closer cross-strait cooperation. It is unclear why Beijing thinks it is to its advantage to arm the DPP with such an effective weapon.
Speaking of weapons, Beijing should at least freeze and preferably reduce its missile forces opposite Taiwan. In deciding not to sell the AEGIS shipborne missile defense system to Taipei in 2001, the Bush administration indicated that it would reevaluate this decision based on the nature of the threat.
Can anyone imagine President George W. Bush, in an election year, ignoring a new Taiwanese request for better missile defenses? The Democrats would have to wait in line behind Bush's own supporters to criticize another turn-down. A missile reduction is more than a goodwill gesture; it makes strategic sense. The introduction of AEGIS will largely undermine the psychological value of China's missiles or force an even more expensive missile buildup to compensate.
Chen has taken the first step. Some diplomatic gestures by Bei-jing could now play a major role in setting the tone for future cross-strait cooperation, if Beijing has the political courage and foresight to wave olive branches rather than sabers toward Taiwan.
Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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