President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) clearly heard the warnings issued by Washington and, less subtly, by Beijing prior to his inauguration. Beijing warned Taiwan's leaders that it would "crush their schemes firmly and thoroughly at any cost" if they continued their "dangerous lurch toward independence." Washing-ton advised Chen to take Beijing's threats seriously.
Message received! Chen's May 20 inauguration address was filled with olive branches; it addressed all of Beijing's (and Washington's) major concerns. Despite opposition from his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the even more independence-oriented Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), Chen agreed to "reaffirm the promises and principles set forth in my inaugural speech in 2000," in effect reassuring Beijing that he would not declare independence, change the national title, push for "state-to-state" terminology in the Constitution, promote an independence referendum, or abolish the now-dormant but still symbolic National Reunification Council or Guidelines (the "five noes").
Chen even said that he understood why Beijing "cannot relinquish the insistence on `one China Principle.'" While Beijing's formulation -- "there is only one China in the world and both the mainland and Taiwan belong to that one and same China" -- has been consistently rejected by all major political factions in Taiwan, Chen said that both sides "can seek to establish relations in any form whatsoever."
"We would not exclude any possibility," Chen asserted, "so long as there is consent of the 23 million people of Taiwan."
The speech's positive, cooperative tone, after a bitter election contest that had included a great deal of China-bashing, was a clear signal that Chen understands the difference between campaign rhetoric and the realities of governing in China's massive shadow.
Washington welcomed Chen's remarks: "By making clear his administration's commitment not to take steps that would unilaterally change the status quo, underscoring its openness to seeking accord with Beijing, and reaffirming previous commitments on cross-strait relations, Chen Shui-bian's address creates an opportunity for Taipei and Beijing to restore dialogue across the Strait."
If only this were true. Unfortunately, China's initial response has been deja vu all over again. In its May 17 pre-election warning, Beijing had held out the possibility of "equal-footed consultations," including a willingness to address the issue of "international living space ... commensurate with [Taiwan's] status so as to share the dignity of the Chinese nation."
But rather than seeing Chen's speech as a step in this direction, Beijing announced on May 24 that the inauguration address had shown "no sincerity to improve relations," repeating Beijing's long-standing (unacceptable) demand that Chen "acknowledge that Taiwan and mainland China together both belong to a single country." Rattling a few sabers, China's authoritative Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Zhang Mingqing (
This uncompromising approach has not worked for the past four years; it is likely to fail again. If there is to be any hope for a breakthrough in cross-strait relations during the next four years, Beijing needs to pursue a more imaginative, flexible, pro-active approach. Its current policies, Chen observed, "drive the hearts of the Taiwanese people further away."
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