Taiwan's leaders seem to be engaged in political power games, the outcomes of which will influence both domestic political developments and cross-strait interactions. The powers that the ruling and opposition elites are fighting over include government resources, party nominations and political mobilization.
For the pan-green alliance, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in particular, the overall distribution of power means that when President Chen Shui-bian (
The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), watching with hungry eyes, seems to be left out. Left to their own devices, these elites have to build their own platform and play their own game, and continue to build their selective election alliances and alliances on certain issues with the DPP.
What the TSU leaders are hoping for, however, is that the DPP will not win enough seats for a majority on its own in the year-end legislative elections. This would mean that the DPP would continue to need the support of TSU legislators, tying the DPP's left leg to the TSU's right.
In the pan-blue alliance, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has been running a three-legged race with the People First Party (PFP) since before the presidential election. But since the two parties have not coordinated their moves so far, there remains a constant risk that they will fall over and injure themselves.
The KMT and the PFP came together to present a joint presidential ticket, and both parties hope to continue their cooperation by forming a stable opposition alliance for the legislative election and on specific issues. They also declared an alliance "of iron and blood" aimed at consolidating their leadership and finding out the truth about the March 19 shooting of Chen and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮).
But the left leg of the KMT comprises various groups of younger KMT members, who say that new blood is the only way to extend the KMT's life. They hope to differentiate the new pan-blues from the old, and to move away from the latter's emphasis on the investigation into the shootings and the party's continuing control by incumbent officials.
By the same reasoning, the PFP's right leg seems to believe that the only way to strengthen the PFP's new power and to become the future leader of the blue camp is to rely on itself.
The younger PFP members believe they are the only ones who know how to break new ground. They say that the "old blue camp" is so old that its leaders no longer have the strength to fight, while the "new blue camp" is too inexperienced.
The green camp also has its right leg tied to the blue camp's left leg in that both of these groups must provide guarantees to the US and must assure Beijing that they will abide by the "five noes" and that they will maintain the cross-strait status quo. They are well aware of these obligations, and will not publicly deny or oppose them.
But the green alliance's left leg believes the only solution lies in rectifying Taiwan's name, and not in some new "ROC is Taiwan" discourse. The blue alliance's right leg believes the solution is public opposition to Taiwan's independence and stressing that "one China" means the ROC. As long as these forces are pulling in different directions, the political center -- a blue-green consensus, the bottom-line in Taiwan's relationship with the US and China -- cannot move forward.
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor of public affairs at Ming Chuan University.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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