Experts on Taiwanese and South Korean politics once formulated the "ping-pong theory" to describe these two countries' political development and the interactions between them. Taiwan and South Korea are nascent democratic countries, and both have faced threats from powerful enemies, tackled authoritarian parties in power, and leaned heavily on aid from the US and Japan.
There also are similarities in the process of democratization between Taiwan and South Korea. Kim Dae-jung as opposition leader beat the ruling party for the first time in South Korea's history and won the presidency in 1998; Chen Shui-bian (
The Chen administration, a symbol of generational change, also acted as a catalyst in South Korea. With the same call for generational change, Roh Moo-hyun took over the presidential Blue House in 2002. Last week the pro-Roh Uri Party gained a landslide victory in the National Assembly elections, securing 152 seats in the 299-seat legislative body. This ends an opposition-dominant legislature and ushers in a new political era. Whether the fallout of the Uri Party's victory will be felt in Taiwan's year-end legislative elections remains to be seen.
On Saturday night, President Chen talked in Taoyuan County of the "South Korean experience." Referring to the South Korean power shift, Chen said he expects the DPP to win more than half of the seats in the Legislative Yuan and to terminate the political paralysis imposed by a pan-blue-dominated legislature. A DPP-controlled legislature is a strong probability, given that Chen won more than 50 percent of the vote in the presidential election. Boosted by economic revival and now more experienced, the DPP is likely to receive an increase in votes and seats alike.
Naturally, the government's efforts are an important element in whether Taiwan will follow South Korea's example, but the determining factor lies in the opposition's hands. The decisive defeat of the anti-Roh opposition in the South Korean elections was the result of its unreasonable impeachment of the president and the political turmoil it caused. Their misreading of public opinion led to their defeat.
The pan-blue alliance shares similarities with its South Korean counterpart. Although it lost the election by a slim margin, it has not only refused to concede defeat but has claimed that the pre-election shooting of Chen was staged, called for a recount and a new election, and mustered street demonstrations that ended in bloody clashes.
The leaders of the pan-blue alliance have personally orchestrated these demonstrations, but public opinion is turning against the social unrest and economic instability they are causing. Taiwan's opposition is following the example of the opposition in South Korea.
The ball is in the court of the opposition in both nations if the political ping-pong effect is to end. The government and opposition may have been neck-and-neck in the election, but the pan-blues still have a legislative majority: they are not yet doomed to make the same mistakes as their counterparts in Seoul. The pan-blues need to note public opinion, rely on democracy and walk out from the shadow of their election loss. The question is whether the pan-blue leaders can learn from South Korea's experience.
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